2025 Commentaries
Will the Treasury twist if the Chinese dump?
October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16: NYC – Groupwide cocktail event Oct 21: Tokyo […]
You can't fatten up the pig the day before the fair
As I was on the driving range one morning getting ready for a Saturday golf game, our club pro was giving me a few tips on how to work a deeper cut shot. In the background, I heard the distinctively southern accent of one of my favorite members. He sauntered over with a smile and […]
You can't remove something the Fed never had in the first place
In his 1962 classic essay – Should there be an independent monetary authority? – Milton Friedman posits the following: “The problem is to establish institutional arrangements that will enable government to exercise responsibility for money, yet will at the same time limit the power thereby given to government and prevent the power from being used […]
A normative CNBC interview tomorrow
In the late spring of 1991, I entered the Mariner S Eccles building on 20th Street and Constitution Ave in Washington DC for the first time. I had just finished my fourth year of graduate school in the Economics Department at the University of Rochester, and I was interviewing for a summer research position in […]
The "uncertainty" hoax
For the naysayers who have completely misjudged financial markets this year, the word “uncertainty” has become a constant cover for failure. These folks have let politically charged hostility take over their investment process. As a result, they are now in desperate need of a way to save face. If they could just cloak their apprehensive […]
A cogent and convincing case for sharply lower interest rates
Before turning to the hot topic of future Fed rate cuts, let me say a few words about performance. So far this year, our beloved risk parity trading strategy registered a +13.75% total return, with spoos +7.75% and blues +6%. That +29.4% annualized run rate ranks as one of the best for risk parity in […]