A catchy headline huh? Sorry to all the doomsayers, it’s not the crash you were hoping for! This crash will be in implied vols! Attached are 3 charts - 5y5y USD implied swaption vol, 1 mth EURUSD FX implied vol and the VIX. Two things are apparent from these charts –...
While the initial reaction to Ben’s testimony generated a few hick-ups, we are following a standard, albeit somewhat delayed, market response – stronger risk assets and lower expected short rates. Spoos are up about a percent and FFM1 are up 3bps since the testimony...
I remember when we all used to brace ourselves for HH testimony (aka the semiannual monetary policy report to congress). The wording was always cryptic and confusing – and everyone sat on the edge of their seat trying to figure out what the maestro was really saying....
Before discussing today’s HH testimony, I wanted to follow up on yesterday's commentary attacking the deflationista camp. I received mucho feedback on that piece – some agreed, but many didn’t like what they read and wanted more detail. Specifically, people asked for...
I thought I would look back over the last 60 years and attempt to measure how significant these hyped up deflation risks in the US economy really are. Deflation angst has surely been increasing recently – and it was also quite a prevalent worry back in the last...
I thought I would look back over the last 60 years and attempt to measure how significant these hyped up deflation risks in the US economy really are. Deflation angst has surely been increasing recently – and it was also quite a prevalent worry back in the last recession when helicopter Ben was making waves. […]
