Remain calm, all is well (part 3)

A few months back I wrote 2 commentaries- one entitled “Remain calm, all is well” and another one entitled “Remain calm, all is well redux”. Both of these were in response to 25bps discount rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. At that time many clients seemed convinced...

5 things to discuss

1. The Fed 2009 consolidated financial statements 2. Separating Derivatives businesses from commercial banking business 3. Poor initial claims data 4. EU unraveling 5. Real money woes I will get to 1, 2 and 3 tomorrow as I think 4 and 5 are the most important- Real...

Deleveraging EURO currency risk – a messy process

Given the market developments over the past couple days, it feels right that I should be writing today’s commentary from Tokyo – the global center of government policy mishaps. Since I last wrote on Wednesday risk assets have sold off sharply, USTs and Euro govvies...

The best 20b USD any government ever spent

The ECB bought 20b USD of peripheral bonds last week - and the entire 400b USD stock of Greek debt went up 15 to 20 points - the largest return on investment for any government program in history I think! Furthermore, those returns do not include the even larger...

I wish we could fast forward to parity in the Euro

Reserve asset managers and real money are caught VERY long Euros. International corporates with receivable/payable mismatches are scrambling to hedge Euro exposures. And of course, speculative money is pushing hard to short Euros. The rest of the flows in global...