The European bailout plan announced 10 days ago had all the makings of a success story. Spreads tightened sharply, risk assets rallied and the global banking system came back from the abyss. The only immediate worries were the Euro currency falling too quickly and a...
While the details are still difficult to find, it looks like the mother of all bailouts this evening in Europe. The reports suggest a 946b EU wide bailout package with the IMF and even the British (forcibly) involved. The Fed have reinstated the USD swap lines until...
I think this is a great jobs report, but it still won’t make Washington happy. There were 500k new jobs added but 800k people coming into the labor force – hence the U rate up to 9.9%. The bottom line is that we still have a lot of slack in this economy. There are 8m...
I’m going to start today, like I did yesterday, discussing the long end of the US bond market. Given my never ending obsession with steeper curves and early asset sales, I received a number of hostile phone calls about the recent long end outperformance. First of all...
Why have 30yr US rates dropped 45bps in the last month? The answer I believe is across the pond and not here in the US. The attached chart shows that 30yr BTP yields were LOWER than 30yr UST yields one month ago. As the unraveling in Europe has picked up steam, the...
Why have 30yr US rates dropped 45bps in the last month? The answer I believe is across the pond and not here in the US. The attached chart shows that 30yr BTP yields were LOWER than 30yr UST yields one month ago. As the unraveling in Europe has picked up steam, the ultra long end […]
