In yesterday's commentary entitled "If I can flip it, then I'll buy it" I made some veiled metaphorical comparison between the US Treasury market of today and the Miami condo market of 2003/07. I want to expand on that metaphor today. In the 2003/07 time period there...
A senior Fed official asked me in a meeting not too long ago - "Are you surprised at how effective we have been at lowering long term rates?" My answer was - "Absolutely". We went on to discuss the breakdown of long term nominal rates into a real component, an...
Maybe it’s because I have taken a few days off to recharge the batteries and tackle some fresh springtime powder in the Alps; but it seems like many folks have failed to notice a seismic shift in markets. Only a handful of days ago, spoos finally pushed through 1400...
Last Thursday, as part of our Global Macro Speaker Series, I hosted a discussion in NYC with Ken Rogoff and Alan Meltzer. As many readers know, Ken has been an outspoken advocate of QE policies. He has also been in favor of temporarily pursuing higher inflation levels...
Employment highlights – * The participation rate went back up 0.2 and the unemployment rate still held steady at 8.3%. * There were some decent revisions to January payrolls (+28k) and December payrolls (+14k) * The broader U6 rate fell from 15.1% to 14.9% * The last...
Employment highlights – * The participation rate went back up 0.2 and the unemployment rate still held steady at 8.3%. * There were some decent revisions to January payrolls (+28k) and December payrolls (+14k) * The broader U6 rate fell from 15.1% to 14.9% * The last three months private payrolls have been 233k, 285k […]
