As promised I am back with some mortgage data for everyone to chew through. As regular readers are aware, there is one chart that I believe continues haunt the prospects for a US recovery. That is the first chart attached and it shows that even as the funds rate has...
This is the key passage from the minutes on the thought process driving the reinvestment strategy decision – “members generally saw both employment and inflation as likely to fall short of levels consistent with the dual mandate for longer than had been anticipated....
I have gone back over “the speech” a couple times this weekend. Given all the confusion post the 10-Aug FOMC meeting, I think this speech deserves at least a couple of reads - at the moment it is our clearest read into current FOMC thinking. As I pointed out on Friday...
There is nothing here to comfort risk markets. The Fed is going to buy more Treasuries as a means to ease “if needed”. He presented 4 possible easing choices - 3 of which are basically worthless in my opinion: buying more USTs, communication (i.e. moving to a “really...
I want to start with a quote from Ben in 2003 that I used in yesterday’s commentary. I’m repeating it today because it is VERY important – “when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating...
I want to start with a quote from Ben in 2003 that I used in yesterday’s commentary. I’m repeating it today because it is VERY important – “when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating expectations of inflation on the part […]
