Don’t Fight the Treasury

There are many time-tested investment mantras: "Don't put all your eggs in one basket", "It's a marathon not a sprint", "Time in the market beats timing the market", the list goes on!! But probably the single most repeated verse by investment professionals over the...

RAMPing into 2026

Before discussing the dovish monetary policy announcement by the FOMC last week, I want to provide a few comments on the technologically challenged private credit/macro zoom I hosted last Tuesday with my good friend John Zito. To those who tuned in, please accept my...

Make 2% Neutral Again

For the last couple quarters, estimates of US real GDP growth have been clocking in at an "exceptional" 4% annualized rate. Over that same time frame, however, the average monthly payroll gain has only been a meager 58k, while the unemployment rate has increased from...

Labor Market Halitosis

The issue of heavy concentration in US equity market returns has been a false red flag for years. In fact, in a piece I penned back in July 2024 entitled "Not every company deserves a participation trophy", I argued that the then omnipresent worries about market...

Will the Treasury twist if the Chinese dump?

October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16:...