A cogent and convincing case for sharply lower interest rates

Before turning to the hot topic of future Fed rate cuts, let me say a few words about performance. So far this year, our beloved risk parity trading strategy registered a +13.75% total return, with spoos +7.75% and blues +6%. That +29.4% annualized run rate ranks as...

Will every 10bps back up in USTs become a “Liz Truss” moment?

With the markets calming, I have not written in a couple weeks. That said, during the chaos of April and early May, I wrote much more than usual. And in each of those past notes, I tried to counter the relentless negativity from so many clients, competitors, and...

Emotional Arbitrage

Towards the end of the 1987 movie classic Wall Street, as BlueStar Airlines stock was collapsing, a calm Bud Fox enters into the following telephone exchange with an emotional Gordon Gekko: Bud: "You once told me don’t get emotional about stock, Gordon. Don’t. The bid...

Is the TWD a guiding light for Plaza 2.0?

Away from all the “we are in recession now” folks choking on their breakfast sandwiches just after Friday's strong payroll release, a sleepy currency pair was lurching onto the financial market center stage. The Taiwan dollar, which almost always trades in highly...