The mainstream economics profession, through their Phillips Curve based Keynesian models, brought you the failed forecasts of recession and sharply higher unemployment in 2023/24. They also brought you the flawed stagflationary trade policy predictions during Trump...
Like most folks, the first time I heard of DeepSeek was around 48 hours ago. I quickly tried to read all the "expert” analysis I could find on what they purportedly accomplished for a fraction of the cost their US peers incurred. After a few hours, I found credible...
To start 2025, I want to harken back to Q2 2013, when both spoos and gold were trading around 1500. It was a time when folks were still hurting from the GFC, and plenty of skeptics still thought the US was heading for a Japanese- or Zimbabwean-style economic outcome....
Prior to the election, I wrote a few notes suggesting that we are headed towards a neutral monetary policy stance that is similar to that which prevailed at the end of 2019, before all the craziness of COVID. Specifically, I argued that the eventual equilibrium...
This month's "From the Vault" is a little more recent than usual, but I thought it would be an enjoyable reprint before year end. We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher - April 10, 2024. The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI...
This month's "From the Vault" is a little more recent than usual, but I thought it would be an enjoyable reprint before year end. We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher - April 10, 2024. The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year...
