While a return to 1970s-style wage inflation and 1930s-style trade wars is all the rage across the hater community, another brick in the 2018 wall of worry that comes up consistently when speaking to clients is Libor. The old 2007-09 proxy for funding market stress,...
Fiscal policy, regulatory policy, and even Fed policy have taken a back seat to the new driver of daily swings in financial markets: trade policy. I have spent a bit of time in recent notes over the last month trying to dissuade folks from getting too bent out of...
As many of you are aware, we are holding another Global Macro Speaker Series event next week on 2-Apr-2018 in New York City. It will be the usual fireside chat structure, lasting about one hour. And this time our guest will be Janet Yellen. As was done with our prior...
Hawkish hype surely gained traction in the lead-up to Jay’s first FOMC meeting this week. Talk of four – and whispers of even five – rate hikes in 2018 was becoming ubiquitous. But in the end Jay delivered a calm, cool, and clean FOMC rate-hike decision. His...
Janet was always convinced that there existed excess labor market slack in the post-crisis economy. And as such, the low participation rate and low employment-to-population ratio were never permanent fixtures in her long-run economic view. She also believed that...
Well, it had to happen at some point. We all knew Trump had the power to set tariffs unilaterally as long as he invoked national security concerns. And steel and aluminum were certainly natural candidates. The questions now of course center on international escalation...
Well, it had to happen at some point. We all knew Trump had the power to set tariffs unilaterally as long as he invoked national security concerns. And steel and aluminum were certainly natural candidates. The questions now of course center on international escalation and congressional backlash, since these specific trade protections are not particularly […]
