I have been struggling for a couple weeks now to find anything exciting to discuss in these commentaries. Our European political view seems to have panned out reasonably well with moves towards the center in both the Netherlands and France. It appears, at least for...
For the last 16 months I have spent very little time in these notes focusing on Europe. ECB reticence to act aggressively post the policy debacle of Dec 2015, combined with high levels of political uncertainty into 2017, created a very poor risk/reward outlook for...
I imagine that as the finishing touches were being placed on the Fed minutes from the second floor of the Eccles building late this past Tuesday evening, the authors were all thinking - "I wonder how large the bond and stock market sell off will be after the...
I realize that I have not written any notes since mid March - and I wanted to just give everyone an update on my brief hiatus from market commentary. Unfortunately, I needed to have two abdominal hernias surgically removed about a week ago. And naturally this has...
It was just about one year ago that the market was licking its wounds from a second China devaluation scare. Back then I was writing notes such as “The Chinese Monkey on Our Back” (11-Feb-16), “Detente Between the Fed and PBOC Makes Spoos and Blues the Winner”...
Based on rhetoric, it would be easy to claim that Trump’s foreign policy goal with respect to Europe is to encourage a breakdown. He has consistently praised the Brexit vote, explicitly stated that the EU is likely to fracture, and emphatically implied that the end of...
Based on rhetoric, it would be easy to claim that Trump’s foreign policy goal with respect to Europe is to encourage a breakdown. He has consistently praised the Brexit vote, explicitly stated that the EU is likely to fracture, and emphatically implied that the end of the EU would be highly beneficial for US global […]
