Janet’s speech on the economic outlook last Friday afternoon in Providence was a direct confirmation of our long-standing 2015 US trading view – that is, it’s best not have one. In the 5 years leading up to 2015 we always kept our eye on the US risk asset prize. The idea was simple – “if […]
As discussed last week in a commentary entitled “Don’t worry, this always happens right after QE”, this rate back-up in Europe was a page straight out of the US QE playbook. For those who do not remember, some of the most epic bond market sell-offs in the post crisis US period came almost immediately following […]
The headlines from our Chief Dove yesterday were unusually unpleasant. There was none of the old nudge-nudge wink-wink I got your back fodder for the market to chew upon. Instead, she slammed duration, equities and high yield simultaneously. With such aggressive comments one has to think – maybe she has spent a little too much […]
Someone unleashed the mother of all risk parity unwinds yesterday. There have been very few days in the post crisis period where RX futures dropped 160 ticks. But witnessing such a rate move in conjunction with a -400 day in GX futures – well that is something as rare as a German white wine which […]
First of all let me thank so many of our readers for the their kind words. My last commentary, “70 Years Ago”, generated more responses than any other in my 5+ years at Jefferies. Folks from all over the world shared their family stories from that dark period of time in history. I am blessed […]
I do not see much out there to change our 2015 “Dax and Dollar” (aka BTDD) trading theme. I suppose for high frequency traders the retail sales and CPI data in the US this week will be a focal point – but I doubt either will set off any changes in the big trends. And […]
In the last 24 hours spoos have dropped about 50 points. Now one might have thought that a quick risk-off move like that would cause interest rates to fall, but it didn’t. Our old friends, the blue Euordollar futures, are lower by 4bps over the same time period…rates are UP!. And the CT30 yield is […]
There has been no shortage of punditry on USD strength in 2015. It has been THE consensus trade of the year. And certainly we have been guilty of running with the pack on this one via our long Dax & Dollar trading theme (BTDD). Of course it is always more fun to be both against […]
This was an excerpt from our last commentary entitled “Uncomfortable Swedish Flip Flops”: “My best guess for Wednesday is we see patience gone, we get a little volatility to trade, and then we go right back to our happy place – the BTDD world” The logic was quite simple: “….dropping patience would appease the more […]
Swedes are not well known in the world of high fashion. Their only domestic shoe brand of note is called a “Hasbeen” – some sort of wooden clog like contraption that appears about as comfortable as an extra tight pair of ski boots. But the Swede’s reputation for bizarre looking and uncomfortable shoes does extend […]