Its amazing what passes for amazing these days! The US fixed income markets have been mesmerized by a 50bps move in 10yr notes. Yes, it appears somehow that a 50bps drop, from 3.00% to 2.50%, over the first 5 months of 2014 is somehow worthy of great excitement!!! To put this move in context, last […]
I wonder what the haters will latch onto next. The list of things to fret about in 2014 has been seemingly endless – Russian aggression, US underemployment, cold weather, soft Q1 data, Chinese credit, demographics, inequality, entitlements, tapering, credit bubbles and of course the most serious concern for all global markets – the breakdown of […]
Way back in the Greenspan era, there was a term which was often used to describe imprecise FedSpeak – it was called “purposeful obfuscation”. Alan Greenspan perfected this art of confusion over his 18+ year tenure as Chairman. When asked by layman lawmakers about future rate moves he would basically ramble incoherently, throw down some […]
Back in February, just around Valentine’s Day, I issued a short poetic summary of my views on our newly anointed Fed Chair. It went like this: Roses are red Violets are blue Janet’s a dove Buy more spoo That was right around the time of our first “spoo dip” in 2014. Not too long after […]
It’s that time of year again – the time when sell side firms campaign for Institutional Investor votes. I have to admit, I don’t understand exactly how the process works. Last year many of you were kind enough to make me your first place vote in the overall “Fixed Income Strategy” as well as the […]
After last Friday’s soft payroll report and those fleeting record highs in spoos, the market has reverted to its newfound aimless pattern. Today we sit basically unchanged for the year in spoos, with both the bulls and the bears finding very little love in 2014. But away from the boredom in broad equity market aggregates, […]
Ok, I just read Janet’s speech in Chicago today. Holy dovish deepdish pizza batman!! I have no recollection of a Fed Chair’s speech where the lives of three down-on-their-luck job seeking individuals were discussed in detail. This is one loving and caring Fed Chair – I must send her a “no haters” hat immediately! If […]
Charlie Evans gave a fantastic speech in Hong Kong today- http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/2014/03_28_14__thoughts_accommodative_policy_hong_kong.cfm. I encourage everyone to read it! Charlie has been at the forefront of thinking on unconventional monetary policy since the beginning – and his “out of the box” style has been a key driver in much of the FOMC actions over the last 5 […]
In Q1 of 2013 Jeremy Stein made a speech on credit market overheating that slipped by most people in the market: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20130207a.htm. This speech turned out to be the canary in the coal mine portending the taper tantrum later on in the spring. For those who don’t remember, Jeremy spent a great deal of time […]
Janet started out her press conference by saying: “this change in our guidance does not indicate any change in the committee’s policy intentions as set forth in recent statements. Rather, the changes meant to clarify how the committee anticipates policy evolving after the unemployment rate declines below 6.5%” Policy intentions were unchanged? Really? The median […]