The employment data last week was certainly strong enough for the Fed to move ahead with a taper at the upcoming FOMC meeting. A 7% unemployment rate with a RISING participation rate and a 200K handle on payrolls is about as good as we could have wished for. And the...
"The economy cannot on its own generate enough steam to provide our full potential of growth" - Alvin Hansen, "The Stagnation Thesis" (1954) The first economist to use the term "secular stagnation" was Harvard Professor Alvin Hansen in his 1938 work entitled "Full...
With Janet's hearings out of the way, there is little to focus on with regards to Fed policy into year-end. The next major event will be November payrolls, but even a big print will not likely catalyze a taper. With all the talk of lower unemployment thresholds,...
Days like yesterday are simply magical – spoos +14 and EDZ6 +16; it just doesn’t get any better. The risk market and the risk-free markets were both strong to start the day, on rumors that the Fed might lower the IOER in conjunction with an initial taper. What a...
A 2.8% GDP print and 200k+ on payrolls are poison for the hater community. For those who thought QE is just pushing on a string, or the government shutdown would destroy growth, or the business cycle is dead, or Rob Ford did not have a substance abuse problem.....I'm...
"The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." – John Kenneth Galbraith Just about 23 years ago I entered the Marriner S. Eccles building for the first time, walking through the doors on C Street between 20th and 21st. As I passed...
"The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." – John Kenneth Galbraith Just about 23 years ago I entered the Marriner S. Eccles building for the first time, walking through the doors on C Street between 20th and 21st. As I passed security and stood in the foyer, I marveled at the […]
