Good morning from Houston. It has been a nice couple days on the road with a stop at the Atlanta Fed for an excellent conference on peripheral Europe, and a great dinner last night with 25 very loquacious clients in Houston. I must say, spreading a message that is long term positive for risky/hard assets […]
The first Thanksgiving, some 400 plus years ago, was celebrated by the Pilgrims to give thanks to God for seeing them safely out of Europe and onto the shores of the “New World”. Ironically, around many Thanksgiving tables this year, including Zervos family table, many folks once again gave thanks for being safely ensconced in […]
As we head into holiday mode, I just want to put out a quick note to clean up a few things. First, yesterday’s note generated A LOT of controversy. Of course, those that have been reading these commentaries for the past 2 years know that the style is meant to be controversial. That said, this […]
If you want to read one of the most misguided pieces of research on the euro crisis look no further than here – http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2504. After reading this you will understand the dark and disturbed German disease that my good friend, and esteemed global strategist, James Aitken has diagnosed as “sado-fiscalism”. It has contaminated the minds […]
As only Mick Jagger could sing it – Angie, when will those clouds all disappear. Angie, where will it lead from here. With no loving in our souls and no money in our coats. You can’t say were satisfied. But Angie, you can’t say we never tried. All the dreams we hold so close seemed […]
Times they have to be pretty bad if the economists are called in to run a country! Papademos is now the Greek prime minister and it appears that Monti will get the tap in Italy. We will have two PhD economists, from MIT and Yale, ready to lead the battle charge against crisis in southern […]
The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs from 70% to […]
It is always nice to come in, turn on the screens and see the spoo up a percent, 2yr Greece/Germany spreads 500 wider and 10yr France/Germany 2 wider. It’s that sweet sweet music of Fed reflation and European detonation! Yesterday, Ben gave a most transparent presentation of the Fed policy reaction function, which should certainly […]
The language on growth is a little more upbeat – “economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter” and “household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months”. This statement from the last meeting however stayed intact – “Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global […]
The last time we had a referendum in Greece was 1974 when the monarchy was abolished and Third Hellenic Republic was established. Since 1829 there have only been 8 referendums in Greece, which ironically enough is very close to the number of defaults since that time at 5. Needless to say Greeks do not call […]