Throughout US economic history there have been many "Great" events - The Great Depression of the 30s; The Great Inflation of the 70s; The Great Moderation of the mid 80s to mid 00s; and of course The Great Recession of the late 00s. Now we can add another "Great" to...
The jobs data was soft. - Payrolls missed by 23k and there were 26k of revisions lower to past months - so a 50k miss - Hours worked was softer - Average hourly earnings was MUCH softer - The U-rate did fall to 7.4, but on a lower participation rate (by 0.1) The...
Yesterday's Fed statement was dovish. First, growth expectations were implicitly lowered by the stealth use of the word "modest" instead of "moderate". Second, the increased risks of disinflation were highlighted via the insertion of a new statement suggesting - "the...
The last 2 months have been tough for fixed income investors - especially levered ones. QE front runners, who followed our beloved colonel down the road to recovery by holding excess Agency MBS and long term USTs, were just given the "PFC Santiago" treatment. It was a...
First of all, hats off to Paul Krugman. Anyone who can successfully weave "The Chewbacca Defense" from South Park episode 27 into a macroeconomic commentary is certainly worthy of the title Nobel Laureate. Bravo Paul, your recent missive -...
QE is working VERY well. Jobs are being generated; consumer and business sentiment are back above pre-crisis levels; home prices are rising at double digit annualized rates; and risk-asset prices are at record highs. Much to the dismay of the haters and the doomers,...
QE is working VERY well. Jobs are being generated; consumer and business sentiment are back above pre-crisis levels; home prices are rising at double digit annualized rates; and risk-asset prices are at record highs. Much to the dismay of the haters and the doomers, the medicine has been effective. And importantly, the two most popular […]
