The Germans did not force a Greek credit event, and the Greeks did not vote to reject the 12 billion Euros on offer. The next step is for the Greeks to accept the fiscal austerity package, something that the 155 MPs who voted “yes” last night will almost surely do at the end of the […]
The short term price action in all global capital markets is 99.9 percent about Greece. Last week the Germans ceded and granted a stay of execution for the global banking system. We caught a glimpse of what the beginning of a relief trade might look like with 10s pushing north of 3.10 and spoos above […]
Watching German and French politicians take the global banking system to the edge of the abyss – less than 3 years after it was done by US politicians – is painful. We all understand these guys need votes while their coalitions are falling to pieces. And in order to get the votes and stay in […]
I just got off the phone with my aunt and uncle who have travelled from the island of Corfu to be in Syntagma square for the protests leading up to today’s meeting between the President and the Prime Minister of Greece. My uncle has lived through a Nazi occupation of his home as a child […]
During a radio interview last Saturday, Jean-Claude Juncker made the following statement – “The debt level of the USA is disastrous…the real problem is that no one can explain well why the euro zone is in the epicenter of a global financial challenge at a moment when the fundamental indicators of the euro zone are […]
We are now are now 90 points off the cyclical and 2011 highs in the spoo, or 6.9%. For the year we are still up 2% but things feel very shaky – not as bad as the March Tsunami dip to 1248 – but close. The most recent catalyst for weakness was Ben’s speech late […]
For those in the camp that Q2 economic data weakness is temporary, the supply disruptions in Japan will ebb, the Chinese tightening measures will lead to only a modest Asian slowdown and that the current situation is basically bump in the road on the way to a sustained US recovery – then the bond market […]
There is no way to put a positive spin on the US data – it stinks. It’s been soft and mushy for the better part of a month now, and today we get the crème fraiche on top with payrolls. Goods manufacturing and retail services look to be the big culprits so there may be […]
On 28-May I attended a roundtable discussion in Limassol, Cyprus with Athanasios Orphanides, the governor of the central bank of Cyprus, Don Kohn, the ex-vice chairman of the FRB, Lucas Papdemos, the ex-vice president of the ECB, and Nout Wellink, president of the Dutch Central Bank and chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. […]
The Greek situation is the single greatest tail risk for markets. Restructuring, default and/or EU exit will surely bring with it confusion and retrenchment across ALL capital markets. The current situation remains “fluid” with quarterly reviews of the austerity progress creating a never ending worry about the trickle of future bailout monies. To be sure, […]