Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to...
The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year, is worth revisiting today. I particularly like the title CNBC chose to go with for the clip: "We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies' David Zervos"...
Before tackling today's topic, I want to respond to the many readers who reached out after a technical glitch in our new publishing system accidently sent two old notes from 2020 to my entire distribution list last Friday. I was worried that this would annoy folks who...
I do not usually comment on market reactions to a single piece of data, but the ripfest in spoos after yesterday’s higher than expected 0.4% print in core CPI is worth a shout out. Prior to the release of market moving economic data, such as NFP or CPI, the dealer...
For over a year I have tried to convince clients, colleagues, and competitors that the colossal size of global central bank balance sheets has been deeply underappreciated by the macroeconomic forecasting community. The long-term stimulative effects from these balance...
Not a day goes by without some high-profile market pundit, C-suite executive, politician, or portfolio manager preaching about the grave fiscal risks that face the US. In fact, I would venture to guess that it’s a top 3 discussion point for anyone looking to scare up...
Not a day goes by without some high-profile market pundit, C-suite executive, politician, or portfolio manager preaching about the grave fiscal risks that face the US. In fact, I would venture to guess that it’s a top 3 discussion point for anyone looking to scare up a bit of doom within a public speech, newspaper […]
