There is plenty of heathy debate out there on the outlook for Fed rate cuts during 2024. And to be sure, you can find just about any forecast you like from the standard pool of professional pundits. Typical examples run something like “They will cut 25bps every meeting starting in March” or “They will cut […]
To start 2024, I have decided to formally bring back the trade that has largely defined my career at Jefferies – risk parity!! I hinted at this in my last note from December; and after further reflection over the holidays, I am now taking the plunge. The bottom line is that the Fed put strike […]
Before I begin today let me just say a big thank you to all who gave last week for the charity haircut. In addition to the $100,000 from Jefferies, $152,275 was raised from clients and colleagues. Here are the final stats: Total raised: $252,275 Total # of donors: 614 Donations > $1000: 30 Mean donation: […]
I have three separate topics to address today. Let me start with trade given the upcoming G20 meeting. And let me warn you up front that I will be getting quite Machiavellian here. In the end you may think I have gone a bit too far with this, but as I get older, I find […]
Definition of symmetry: The quality of being made up of exactly similar parts facing each other or around an axis. Correspondence in size, shape, and relative position of parts on opposite sides of a dividing line or median plane or about a center or axis. ———— The FOMC has gone out of its way recently […]
It’s not often that I read a WSJ editorial and think – “WOW…that was fantastic”. But it happened with this piece from the weekend: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-3-growth-1532731513 I highly recommend talking the time to read it. And once you finish, please have a (re)read of the “Secular Stagulation” piece I wrote back in Feb 2017. It is […]
I cannot imagine anyone realistically thought that opining on Fed policy would be off limits for Trump. He has managed to push the boundaries of traditional Presidential commentary on virtually every policy front – why should monetary policy be the exception? In fact, if his response last week to the question on CNBC about the […]
Today’s payroll data is yet another punch in the gut to those arguing for a sharp rise in inflation pressures. Wage growth came in 0.1% below consensus at the same time payroll growth beat expectations handsomely. The rise in the participation rate, and the unemployment rate, tells us there still exists plenty of labor market […]
Last week was yet another lesson in trade fading. Threats of US tariff increases on $200b of Chinese goods, along with a proposed 20% tariff on car imports from Europe, caused the markets to wobble for a few hours. Then of course the perfunctory fading began. I’m not going to rehash my longstanding “fade trade” […]
I would characterize todays’s FOMC announcement as essentially meeting slightly hawkish expectations. Here is what we learned: No changes to estimates of the NAIRU or r-star. There were some very small tweaks to the path by which we get to equilibrium though. And with one dot moving the needle, the median forecast has now gone […]