Both Europe and the US had debt bubbles which popped. Banks on both sides of the Atlantic do not hold enough capital to cover the losses associated with the poor lending decisions from the previous decade. The folks with 200 LTVs in Las Vegas are no different than...
I have been fortunate enough to speak at a conference out in Las Vegas over St. Patrick's Day and the NCAA tipoff party this week. At the conference we have discussed and debated the global crisis environment for hours on end -but in the bubble that is the rest of Las...
Whether you trade US consumer abs, European bank credit, Aussie government debt or USDMEX there is almost certainly one chart featured prominently on your screen(s) - the S&P 500. In times of unprecedented uncertainty and crisis, correlations always move sharply...
While I am not a huge fan of either survey or TIPS based measures of inflation expectations, today's UMich inflation expectations release is going to raise some eyebrows at 20th and C Street in DC!!! The following statement from the Jan 26th FOMC meeting may need a...
There are many messages in my inbox this morning on the Japanese quake. While I don’t think anyone has successfully been able to grasp the extent of the damage, the size of 8.9 is truly shocking. Such a quake is capable of horrific destruction. We can all only hope...
There is plenty to discuss this morning in light of the US data, the Fed testimony and the ECB red alert. First, the US data were strong – claims, the U rate and the employment components of the PMIs all point to a MUCH stronger employment picture for Q1 2011 than...
There is plenty to discuss this morning in light of the US data, the Fed testimony and the ECB red alert. First, the US data were strong – claims, the U rate and the employment components of the PMIs all point to a MUCH stronger employment picture for Q1 2011 than virtually every economic forecaster […]
