In the last 24 hours I have had conversations with a wide array of non-English European folks. Many I have known in the markets for 15 to 20 years. The common theme in all of the conversations, even the senior policy makers, was the acquiescent nature of the...
Let’s start with a few fun quotes from the weekend: Wolfganf Munchau – “The eurozone is maneuvering itself into a position where it confronts the choice between two alternatives considered “unimaginable”: fiscal union or break-up” Wolfgang Schaeuble - “We are not just...
Spreads in the Euro-area “quasi-core” are cracking - 5yr French CDS has popped 25bps in the last 6 weeks taking it to a level higher than the Czech Republic and Qatar! And Italy is now funding at its highest spread levels since early 1997 (3 years before EMU kicked...
Nope. I see no reason to get nervous about global systemic contagion risks from an EMU sovereign debt run. The markets are prepared for, and in many cases welcoming of, the news of EMU's demise. A run will very quickly bring relief that Europe has finally come to its...
There has never been good reason to believe the biggest debt violators of the Lisbon treaty would make good on their long term commitments. These countries do not have an inflation mechanism to rid themselves of their real debt burdens and the masses will throw out...
Wow. Ben steps up and delivers! There is no subtle innuendo in his Frankfurt speech, just brazen and downright aggressive warnings to major emerging market trading partners of the US. We wrote that something like this was behind the LSAP/QE2 policy in a commentary...
Wow. Ben steps up and delivers! There is no subtle innuendo in his Frankfurt speech, just brazen and downright aggressive warnings to major emerging market trading partners of the US. We wrote that something like this was behind the LSAP/QE2 policy in a commentary entitled "Translating Ben's Washington Post op-ed article". But we never thought […]
