The US reflation/reserve currency combo trade

It’s a calm day with not much new news so I’ll keep it short. The EURO still looks sick at just around 122, while equities trade a little better and bonds a little softer. Peripheral Europe is trading very poorly this morning with the 10yr Bund/BTP spread almost at...

Milton Friedman and the Euro

The following is an excerpt from a letter dated April 27, 1999 to Antonio Martino, a founding member of Forza Italia, from Milton Friedman http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj28n2/cj28n2-10.pdf “Your views and mine are currently very much the same on the euro. . . ....

Remain calm, all is well (part 4)

First of all it’s nice to be back stateside after a long and fascinating trip to Asia. Given the issues in Korea we skipped our last stop in Seoul, thankfully, and I made it back a day early. I want to spend some time this morning on the issues that came up during our...

Remain calm, all is well (part 3)

A few months back I wrote 2 commentaries- one entitled “Remain calm, all is well” and another one entitled “Remain calm, all is well redux”. Both of these were in response to 25bps discount rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. At that time many clients seemed convinced...

5 things to discuss

1. The Fed 2009 consolidated financial statements 2. Separating Derivatives businesses from commercial banking business 3. Poor initial claims data 4. EU unraveling 5. Real money woes I will get to 1, 2 and 3 tomorrow as I think 4 and 5 are the most important- Real...

Deleveraging EURO currency risk – a messy process

Given the market developments over the past couple days, it feels right that I should be writing today’s commentary from Tokyo – the global center of government policy mishaps. Since I last wrote on Wednesday risk assets have sold off sharply, USTs and Euro govvies...