Before discussing the dovish monetary policy announcement by the FOMC last week, I want to provide a few comments on the technologically challenged private credit/macro zoom I hosted last Tuesday with my good friend John Zito. To those who tuned in, please accept my...
For the last couple quarters, estimates of US real GDP growth have been clocking in at an "exceptional" 4% annualized rate. Over that same time frame, however, the average monthly payroll gain has only been a meager 58k, while the unemployment rate has increased from...
The issue of heavy concentration in US equity market returns has been a false red flag for years. In fact, in a piece I penned back in July 2024 entitled "Not every company deserves a participation trophy", I argued that the then omnipresent worries about market...
October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16:...
As I was on the driving range one morning getting ready for a Saturday golf game, our club pro was giving me a few tips on how to work a deeper cut shot. In the background, I heard the distinctively southern accent of one of my favorite members. He sauntered over with...
In his 1962 classic essay – Should there be an independent monetary authority? - Milton Friedman posits the following: "The problem is to establish institutional arrangements that will enable government to exercise responsibility for money, yet will at the same time...
In the late spring of 1991, I entered the Mariner S Eccles building on 20th Street and Constitution Ave in Washington DC for the first time. I had just finished my fourth year of graduate school in the Economics Department at the University of Rochester, and I was...
For the naysayers who have completely misjudged financial markets this year, the word “uncertainty” has become a constant cover for failure. These folks have let politically charged hostility take over their investment process. As a result, they are now in desperate...
Before turning to the hot topic of future Fed rate cuts, let me say a few words about performance. So far this year, our beloved risk parity trading strategy registered a +13.75% total return, with spoos +7.75% and blues +6%. That +29.4% annualized run rate ranks as...
Here is a link to a column I penned for the Financial Times. It was just published in the online edition, and it will appear tomorrow in the print edition. It is a synthesis of my last two commentaries on overly emotional markets. Good luck trading. ______________...
Here is a link to a column I penned for the Financial Times. It was just published in the online edition, and it will appear tomorrow in the print edition. It is a synthesis of my last two commentaries on overly emotional markets. Good luck trading. ______________ Upcoming Travel Schedule: Jun 11: Washington, DC Jun […]
