I received an unusual amount of feedback from my note from last Friday on the $200b mortgage purchase announcement. Many folks pushed back on the notion that these large-scale asset purchases, to be executed by the GSEs, were yet another version of QE. They argued...
Policy initiatives on both the housing and energy fronts are moving at a fast and furious pace to start 2026. The administration's laser focus on affordability, via lower mortgage rates and gas prices, is clearly creating positive sentiment shifts in risk asset...
It was another banner year for our signature risk parity trade: spoos & blues. For 2025, the equity side returned a cool 18.1%, while the rate hedge added an additional 5.9%. That 24% annual total return is just another notch in the belt for a trading strategy that...
There are many time-tested investment mantras: "Don't put all your eggs in one basket", "It's a marathon not a sprint", "Time in the market beats timing the market", the list goes on!! But probably the single most repeated verse by investment professionals over the...
Before discussing the dovish monetary policy announcement by the FOMC last week, I want to provide a few comments on the technologically challenged private credit/macro zoom I hosted last Tuesday with my good friend John Zito. To those who tuned in, please accept my...
For the last couple quarters, estimates of US real GDP growth have been clocking in at an "exceptional" 4% annualized rate. Over that same time frame, however, the average monthly payroll gain has only been a meager 58k, while the unemployment rate has increased from...
The issue of heavy concentration in US equity market returns has been a false red flag for years. In fact, in a piece I penned back in July 2024 entitled "Not every company deserves a participation trophy", I argued that the then omnipresent worries about market...
October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16:...
As I was on the driving range one morning getting ready for a Saturday golf game, our club pro was giving me a few tips on how to work a deeper cut shot. In the background, I heard the distinctively southern accent of one of my favorite members. He sauntered over with...
In his 1962 classic essay – Should there be an independent monetary authority? - Milton Friedman posits the following: "The problem is to establish institutional arrangements that will enable government to exercise responsibility for money, yet will at the same time...
In his 1962 classic essay – Should there be an independent monetary authority? - Milton Friedman posits the following: "The problem is to establish institutional arrangements that will enable government to exercise responsibility for money, yet will at the same time limit the power thereby given to government and prevent the power from being used […]
