For the last couple quarters, estimates of US real GDP growth have been clocking in at an "exceptional" 4% annualized rate. Over that same time frame, however, the average monthly payroll gain has only been a meager 58k, while the unemployment rate has increased from...
The issue of heavy concentration in US equity market returns has been a false red flag for years. In fact, in a piece I penned back in July 2024 entitled "Not every company deserves a participation trophy", I argued that the then omnipresent worries about market...
October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16:...
As I was on the driving range one morning getting ready for a Saturday golf game, our club pro was giving me a few tips on how to work a deeper cut shot. In the background, I heard the distinctively southern accent of one of my favorite members. He sauntered over with...
In his 1962 classic essay – Should there be an independent monetary authority? - Milton Friedman posits the following: "The problem is to establish institutional arrangements that will enable government to exercise responsibility for money, yet will at the same time...
In the late spring of 1991, I entered the Mariner S Eccles building on 20th Street and Constitution Ave in Washington DC for the first time. I had just finished my fourth year of graduate school in the Economics Department at the University of Rochester, and I was...
For the naysayers who have completely misjudged financial markets this year, the word “uncertainty” has become a constant cover for failure. These folks have let politically charged hostility take over their investment process. As a result, they are now in desperate...
Before turning to the hot topic of future Fed rate cuts, let me say a few words about performance. So far this year, our beloved risk parity trading strategy registered a +13.75% total return, with spoos +7.75% and blues +6%. That +29.4% annualized run rate ranks as...
Here is a link to a column I penned for the Financial Times. It was just published in the online edition, and it will appear tomorrow in the print edition. It is a synthesis of my last two commentaries on overly emotional markets. Good luck trading. ______________...
With the markets calming, I have not written in a couple weeks. That said, during the chaos of April and early May, I wrote much more than usual. And in each of those past notes, I tried to counter the relentless negativity from so many clients, competitors, and...
With the markets calming, I have not written in a couple weeks. That said, during the chaos of April and early May, I wrote much more than usual. And in each of those past notes, I tried to counter the relentless negativity from so many clients, competitors, and colleagues. While others were issuing recession forecasts, […]
