Common misconceptions about the US employment situation

In the year prior to the start of the pandemic, when we were arguably very close to “equilibrium” employment levels, the JOLTS survey averaged ~7.2m openings. Today, with the unemployment rate ~2.5 percentage points higher and employment payrolls ~7m lower, the JOLTS...

The harder they come, the harder they fall

Today I want to say a few words about the transitory nature of our current inflation shock and the grinding rally in 10yr notes. First of all, I believe extremely large underweight/short positions in the long end of the Treasury market, based on the expectation of a...

Undershooting both our inflation and employment goals

I have not felt the need to write much recently given that the macro price action has been largely consistent with my Spoos & J’s trading recommendation for 2021. As most readers are well aware, I’m not much of a cheerleader when my trading views are working well;...

Fade Jimmy “Flip-Flop” B

Folks getting excited about Jim Bullard’s comments from late last week should take a little walk down memory lane with me. Jim has been all over the map with his policy views over the last decade. And if there is one consistency, it appears to be that he just loves to...

A move towards optimism, not hawkishness

Now that the dust has settled, let’s look at a few takeaways from the FOMC meeting. First of all, let me just say that my interview on CNBC, here, just after Jay’s press conference ended, represents a concise summary of my views on the outcome of the meeting. The...

CNBC Appearance (16-Jun-2021)

A discussion of the FOMC meeting and inflation expectations on 16 June 2021. Watch video replay here. Subscribe today to read all of David's Recent...

Macro Zoom (26-May-2021)

A discussion of how the volatility in upcoming US labor market and inflation data will likely affect the risk asset, interest rate, currency, and commodity markets over the summer months. To view the video click here. Subscribe today to read all of David's Recent...

Is being funemployed really a thing??

The all-time high for total non-farm payroll employment came in February 2020 at 153.52m. Over the course of the next two months, predominately in April 2020, the US economy shed 22.36m of those jobs. Back during that dark period, consensus predictions for future...

C’mon inflationistas – put your money where your mouth is!!!

The CPI print last week had everything an inflationista could wish for: a high headline, a super-high core, broad-based price increases, and some truly shocking surges in the auto and transportation sectors. There were no quirks. The report contained serious inflation...

We did it — with 8.5 million fewer workers

Last week, the BEA released its first estimate of real GDP for Q1 2021 at $19.09 trillion. In order to generate this level of GDP, the economy utilized an average of 143.35 million total non-farm workers throughout the quarter. Now if we look back one year ago,...
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