Over the last two months my market discussions with clients and colleagues have centered exclusively on the expectations for Trump economic policies – specifically fiscal policy, regulatory policy, immigration policy, trade policy, and monetary policy. And in...
As our long time readers know, I do not write on a set schedule. I have no daily, weekly or monthly research product. I write when I believe there is something important to say. And my number one rule is to never waste your time. We are all sadly short time, with no...
By now everyone knows the Fed statement was “hawkish”. First, they removed following sentence on international risks – “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on...
I honestly do not enjoy writing commentaries which basically say "see I told you so". But after spending the last two months talking so many of our clients off the ledge, and banging the table on the overall efficacy of QE, I feel a victory lap is in order. So if you...
It has been about 2 months since the great market meltdown of 2015 began! The Chinese devaluation kicked things off in late August, sending spoos from about 2100 to the mid 1800s in a heartbeat. Then, just as the market became somewhat comfortable with idea that...
Friday's employment report was a bit weak relative to the most recent trends. Only 142k new jobs were created, there were negative revisions to the last few months, wage growth slowed and hours worked fell. But hidden in the moderate softness was one very bright spot...
By now most of you have probably watched Carl Icahn's infomercial for the coming apocalypse in high yield debt markets. If not just click here - http://carlicahn.com - it's well worth the time. And after viewing his vituperation of low interest rates, and more...
Over the last year we have consistently argued that the policy reaction for the FOMC was becoming more difficult to estimate. During the excess-slack-filled recovery phase of our business cycle (2009-2014), there was never any doubt about what they would do - print a...
Thus far the market has taken Janet's about face on the policy outlook from last Thursday as an indication that she believes the U.S. economy is in, or is heading towards, a dark place. Her assessment seemed to channel an almost Summeresque warning that EM weakness...
Overall Janet delivered a fantastic speech – http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm. She reiterated many times that QE has been a success. She clearly stated that most of the Committee, including her, expect to raise rates by the end of...
Overall Janet delivered a fantastic speech – http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm. She reiterated many times that QE has been a success. She clearly stated that most of the Committee, including her, expect to raise rates by the end of the year. And she told us we are very close to full employment. I expect developed market risk assets will […]
