Back at the end of Ben's term as Chairman he sat down for a little fireside chat at the Brookings Institution. And during the discussion he was asked about his belief in the efficacy of QE. His response, which elicited a huge round of laughter, was "well, QE works in...
A parade of very bright academics, policy makers and market practitioners have warned the FOMC not to raise rates tomorrow. For example, our professorial friends Larry Summers and Ken Rogoff have argued quite vehemently that removing accommodation at this point risks...
Here are the opening lines from that 1976 classic by Thin Lizzy "The Boys are Back in Town": Guess who just got back today Them wild-eyed boys that had been away Haven't changed that much to say But man, I still think them cats are crazy It's two days into the post...
From 2010-2014 we at Jefferies argued quite strongly that the QE policies from the FOMC would work to reflate US risk asset markets, in particular US stocks. And to be sure, during that 5 year period we encountered our fair share of QE haters. Early on, the hater view...
Although I think the debate on a Sep, Oct or Dec liftoff could be one of the most banal in Fed watching history, I understand that many investors feel differently. There are plenty of folks who have no choice but to keep an allocation to US assets - and hence a month...
This will be my fourth commentary of the week, which I think may be a record. However, given the extraordinary price action, an excessive quantity of verbiage has sadly been necessary. And please remember, my number one rule is to only write when there is something...
A wise friend and excellent hedge fund manager from DC sent me following fabulous line for a commentary title: "Today's exercise: If spoo > x, then liftoff. Solve for x". It was a play on a commentary I wrote back in June 2011 entitled "Today's exercise: If spoo...
I have built and estimated a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) economic model of the global economy which can fully explain the recent market crash dynamics. My model incorporates sticky wages/prices, a monetary sector built around cash in advance...
This was always going to be a difficult year in U.S. markets. Turning the interest rate cycle without a market hick-up, after such an unprecedented and aggressive easing, would require near super human policy-making talent. In the end, I'm not sure anyone could have...
Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards...
Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards the sloppy market price action we have witnessed this week: ------------ "So the […]
