I have built and estimated a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) economic model of the global economy which can fully explain the recent market crash dynamics. My model incorporates sticky wages/prices, a monetary sector built around cash in advance...
This was always going to be a difficult year in U.S. markets. Turning the interest rate cycle without a market hick-up, after such an unprecedented and aggressive easing, would require near super human policy-making talent. In the end, I'm not sure anyone could have...
Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards...
I had hoped for some mind-clearing relaxation in August, but the PBOC decided to turn these calm holiday markets into a confused liquidity starved tsunami. And as I did promise to write from my holiday if anything important happened, I feel obliged to make a few...
August is a wonderful month for reflection. For me it is always a time with very few client meetings, conferences or speaking engagements. And most importantly, it offers a welcome break from airports, hotels, taxis and suitcases. Of course the markets do not always...
Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951...
Last week's note entitled "European bailouts, gold crashes, rate tantrums" generated a fair amount of controversy. Many folks pointed out that the recent abrupt drop in neary all major commodity prices meant that the current situation was not, as I suggested, readily...
While this may sound strange, I believe European risk assets would have ended at higher levels last week had Greece left the Eurozone. Of course there would have been an ugly initial dip, but the market would have quickly realized that an exit (or timeout) was NOT...
When I send out a commentary I generally receive quite a lot of “feedback”. Often I get hundreds of responses, and I wish I could say I read everything - but that would be disingenuous. I do however try to open most of the emails and have at least a quick glance. And...
If we step back for a moment and take stock of the entire Greek situation it is pretty amazing. The Greek parliament is actually about to agree to sweeping tax reforms, pension reforms, labor market reforms and privatizations. And the leader of this great charge for...
If we step back for a moment and take stock of the entire Greek situation it is pretty amazing. The Greek parliament is actually about to agree to sweeping tax reforms, pension reforms, labor market reforms and privatizations. And the leader of this great charge for structural reform – the man who is breaking the […]
