With Janet's hearings out of the way, there is little to focus on with regards to Fed policy into year-end. The next major event will be November payrolls, but even a big print will not likely catalyze a taper. With all the talk of lower unemployment thresholds,...
Days like yesterday are simply magical – spoos +14 and EDZ6 +16; it just doesn’t get any better. The risk market and the risk-free markets were both strong to start the day, on rumors that the Fed might lower the IOER in conjunction with an initial taper. What a...
A 2.8% GDP print and 200k+ on payrolls are poison for the hater community. For those who thought QE is just pushing on a string, or the government shutdown would destroy growth, or the business cycle is dead, or Rob Ford did not have a substance abuse problem.....I'm...
"The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." – John Kenneth Galbraith Just about 23 years ago I entered the Marriner S. Eccles building for the first time, walking through the doors on C Street between 20th and 21st. As I passed...
All that can be gleaned from yesterday's FOMC statement is that the Committee seems a bit more comfortable with 10s at 2.50% than at 3.00%. The October missive was essentially a repeat of September with one exception - the removal of the reference to tighter financial...
"The second scene from the 1975 cult classic "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" keeps running through my mind. The lyrics to that catchy tune, "Dammit Janet", are perfect during periods like the past two weeks when BOTH our beloved spoos and the chartreuse have ripped...
Janet's Jello Shot Recipe -50m 3oz packets of lime Jello -3m gallons of boiling water -10m 750ml bottles of Don Julio 1942 -10m 750ml bottles of Green Chartreuse Liqueur -2 tons of salt -4 trillion of monetary base Mix liquids together, pour into 230m shot glasses,...
From the close of business on 30-Sep to the close of business on 10-Oct, while the US government was shut, the following market moves took place: VIX: 16.6 -> 16.48, -0.12 SPX: 1682 -> 1693, +11 10y: 2.61 -> 2.68, +0.07 EDZ6: 97.74 -> 97.76, + 0.02 MOVE: 80.16 ->...
Back in 2011 I put out a number of commentaries on the debt ceiling showdown. I was thinking about something new to write on this subject given the current situation, but everything was just a rehash of previous thoughts. As such, I am reprinting excerpts from two old...
"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” - Abraham Lincoln "The threat of defaulting on government obligations is a powerful weapon, especially in...
"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” - Abraham Lincoln "The threat of defaulting on government obligations is a powerful weapon, especially in a complex, interconnected world economy. Devoted partisans can use it to disrupt […]
