I don't know how many times I have heard the words "pushing on a string" from the QE-hater community, but it certainly has been in the thousands, maybe even the tens of thousands. When I hear those four words I usually just get out my chart of spoos, or the nikkei,...
I have to admit, even as bullish risk assets as I am, and as happy as I am today with a spoos and chartreuse position, I didn't believe these guys would deliver so strongly on the dovish side. My hat's off to my colleague Ward McCarthy who stuck to his guns throughout...
Over the last couple months the Obama administration made it clear to all who would listen that Larry Summers was their choice for Fed Chairman. And by last week, most folks on both the investment side and policy side were resigned to the idea of a Summers Fed. There...
There is no question that Larry Summers was the Administration's favorite to be the next Fed Chairman. And there is no question that his confirmation process would have been highly combative, creating some severe increases in market, and even economic, volatility. But...
The payroll report is NOT indicative of an economy that's killing it! Net of 2 month revisions, we added less than 100k new jobs this month. Also the household survey showed a drop of 115k jobs last month - and the only reason the U-rate fell to 7.3 is because 312k...
"The degree of central bank independence varies considerably across countries. Several authors including Bade and Parkin (1982), Alesina (1988,1989) and Grilli, Masciandaro, and Tabellini (1991) found that more independent central banks are associated with lower...
"Actions speak louder than words." "Talk is cheap." "Speak softly and carry a big stick." These are common aphorisms which have been used historically to admonish those with loquacious tendencies to pipe down. They are words of wisdom-and something our central bankers...
Throughout US economic history there have been many "Great" events - The Great Depression of the 30s; The Great Inflation of the 70s; The Great Moderation of the mid 80s to mid 00s; and of course The Great Recession of the late 00s. Now we can add another "Great" to...
The jobs data was soft. - Payrolls missed by 23k and there were 26k of revisions lower to past months - so a 50k miss - Hours worked was softer - Average hourly earnings was MUCH softer - The U-rate did fall to 7.4, but on a lower participation rate (by 0.1) The...
Yesterday's Fed statement was dovish. First, growth expectations were implicitly lowered by the stealth use of the word "modest" instead of "moderate". Second, the increased risks of disinflation were highlighted via the insertion of a new statement suggesting - "the...
Yesterday's Fed statement was dovish. First, growth expectations were implicitly lowered by the stealth use of the word "modest" instead of "moderate". Second, the increased risks of disinflation were highlighted via the insertion of a new statement suggesting - "the Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below it 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic […]
