Back in the early ‘70s, as the oil price shock began to hit hard, speed limits in the US were cut to 55mph. The government, in an attempt to limit fuel consumption, came up with fancy slogans like "Fifty is Thrifty" and "Speed Kills" in order to justify the lower...
We have been happily living on QE transfusions for the better part of 4 years. These pain killers have made the healing from our crisis not just tolerable, but actually quite enjoyable (at least for those that sipped the cocktail). That said, the drink has many side...
Non-traditional monetary policy is working across developed markets to heal the wounds incurred during our global financial crisis. Risk free real rates have been driven aggressively lower, and the portfolio balance channel has forced investors out of less productive...
Days like Thursday are simply beautiful: Blues +15 Spoos +25 Gold -17 It had been one heck of a pull back in our long time favorite trade - spoos and blues. So a healthy 3 percent upmove, which brought us back to +12% YTD, felt like a major victory after some...
A number of folks are opining on how higher long term interest rates will choke off the US recovery. The thinking goes along standard partial equilibrium lines as follows - higher mortgage rates crush the housing recovery, higher government bond yields create bigger...
If someone asked me to put together a fake jobs report that would be the most soothing to a frazzled market, it would have read pretty much as just released. The tick up in the u-rate, on a slightly higher participation rate, was a work of art. It moves us further...
Many folks are asking, "Why did 10-year yields rise over 50 bps in just a few weeks?" The typical list of answers runs something like this: hawkish Fed tapering comments, stronger economic data, JGB and Nikkei volatility, MBS weakness/hedging, and the always helpful...
Global coordinated central bank balance sheet expansion, better known as QE, has been rushing through our veins. And the heart of the global economy, developed market equity capital, has been on an adrenaline moon shot. It feels GREAT!!!! The spoo is up about 16...
Literally translated, "Ame futte chi katamaru" means "After the rain, the earth hardens". It is a Japanese saying that implies - "adversity builds character". And no matter how you look at this past week, there was an epic thunderstorm and plenty of adversity in the...
Ben's speech at Bard college over this past weekend was touted as a non-event for monetary policy. I beg to differ. I thought this speech told you more than nearly any other about how he views the monetary policy transmission process into the real economy. The speech...
Ben's speech at Bard college over this past weekend was touted as a non-event for monetary policy. I beg to differ. I thought this speech told you more than nearly any other about how he views the monetary policy transmission process into the real economy. The speech also reveals his deep seeded love for supply […]
