Europe has tried to stage a comeback as a "risk-off" force in the global markets after essentially losing all its relevance in the last 3 to 6 months. Somehow, with Italian 2 year yields at 1.60%, I cannot get very excited about the prospects of Europe staying in the...
Spoos +9, Blues +7, it just doesn't get any better than that! The Fed has your back if it gets bad, and the Fed will be slow to react when it all goes right. The basic trade of long risk/long blues is the best representation of that view in the market - hands down. If...
In the past week I have seen many investors who have quite modest allocations to equities, physical real estate and commodities. These guys are your typical insurance, mutual fund and money manager types. I was also at the ASF meetings in Vegas with many of the same...
There have only been 115 trading days in history where the SPX closed above 1500. The periods were: Mar/Apr 2000, Aug 2000, May-July 2007 and Sept-Dec 2007. And while we didn't settle above 1500 yesterday, it was our first intraday peek above this threshold in over 5...
Since 2009 we have all come to understand who has our back when it all goes wrong. Our beloved Colonel, and his allies at the BoE, ECB, SNB and BoJ, have always stepped in when times got tough. With their oversized fire hoses, they spray the streets with so much...
In the last couple weeks the lines between US fiscal and monetary policy became uncomfortably blurred. In response to the impending US debt ceiling constraint on government spending, a number of prominent economists, congressmen, pundits and bloggers advocated that...
In Jan 2012, the FOMC released the SEP showing that 3 participants saw the Fed Funds rate rising buy the end of 2012 - one member was at 50bps and two were at 1 percent. By the time we got to April 2012 there was one at 50bps, one at 1 percent and one at […]...
In the last 6 months I have tried to spend as little time as possible discussing the fiscal cliff. It was always a farfetched notion that some static, partial equilibrium analysis of a $600b hit to the US economy was going to be relevant. But the markets love a good...
This will be my last note for 2012, and as such I thought it would be most appropriate to review the one theme we have pushed consistently throughout the year. Yes, you guessed it, the third iteration of our rhyming risk-on refrain: spoos and blues. The origin of this...
Back on Nov 1st, when the NKY was below 9000, I wrote a commentary entitled “A lesson on how to lose central bank independence”. The note highlighted a “curious additional release” on the BoJ website after their October policy meeting entitled “Measures Aimed at...
Back on Nov 1st, when the NKY was below 9000, I wrote a commentary entitled “A lesson on how to lose central bank independence”. The note highlighted a “curious additional release” on the BoJ website after their October policy meeting entitled “Measures Aimed at Overcoming Deflation” http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2012/k121030b.pdf. This statement was jointly signed by the BoJ […]
