First the easy one, US jobs. While payrolls was better than expected at 165k, the pop up in both the headline rate and the U6 rate are going to keep an "accommodative" Fed very much in play for September. This is probably the PERFECT number for risk assets. The data...
While there was talk of BTP/Bono spread caps, LTROs, QE, SMP, rate cuts, forward language changes and central banking miracles of all kind before today, the markets got very little in terms of tangible central bank action from either the Fed or the ECB. That said, the...
The bears are back on red alert because the Spanish and Italian debt markets are apparently going to destroy global risk asset markets, capitalism and modern civilization - AGAIN. But while the Spanish 2yr was busy skyrocketing 132bps last week, the Irish 2yr rallied...
There is a famous Time magazine cover from 1998, with a picture featuring 3 of the leading "regulators" at the time - Bob Rubin, Larry Summers and Alan Greenspan. The caption on the cover reads - "The committee to save the world". Of course, in retrospect, these were...
....Gimme an "R". Yes it’s true, during the Q&A Ben put the IOER back on the table. Many pundits had written the IOER off as a policy tool after the minutes from September 2011 suggested officials were too scared of zero rates. According to Fed and financial industry...
Last week was very interesting and very tiring. I started off Monday in Dallas at a dinner with a very lively Texan crowd, and a guest appearance by an ex-ECB governing council member. Mixing Texan-style EMU bearishness with southern Mediterranean central bankers was...
The following passage from the minutes of the September 2011 FOMC meeting has become market gospel on why the Fed will not lower the IOER - “Participants discussed whether to reduce the IOR rate, weighing potential benefits and costs. A number of participants judged...
It should come as no surprise to anyone that major commercial banks manipulate Libor submissions for their own benefit. The OTC derivatives markets was designed by the big banks, for the big banks, to ensure that as they set up their own private securities exchanges -...
Given the history of EU leadership meetings, everyone has become conditioned to expect disappointment. The market set itself up for just such a result last Friday, and the short covering rip fest in risk assets shredded even the most hardened of bears! As our readers...
The Eurogroup communique was short and to the point- http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/131359.pdf And while some folks will focus on the irrelevant removal of subordination in the Spanish bank bailout terms - the big deal is in the...
The Eurogroup communique was short and to the point- http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/131359.pdf And while some folks will focus on the irrelevant removal of subordination in the Spanish bank bailout terms - the big deal is in the opening line and the closing line. "We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and […]
