As the market breathes a collective sigh of relief tonight post the Greek election results, no one should get too carried away with euphoric feelings. Greece is a highly divided, highly volatile and deeply troubled country. A coalition government is by no means a done...
I had hundreds of client responses to my last two commentaries on the Spanish bank bailout. Clearly I struck a nerve. It is safe to surmise from everything I received that it is not very popular to make claims about how Europe might actually be onto something...
All I have read in the last 24 hours is how Spanish government bond holders have been subordinated to the ESM. And this in turn is being touted as the cause for the souring sentiment yesterday, after some short lived euphoria. I must confess, the relevance of this...
The details are not fully transparent, but the Spanish bank bailout - which was requested and granted in the same minute over the weekend - appears to have three VERY important components. First and foremost it is a BANK bailout, not a state bailout. It is early days...
It was Teddy Roosevelt that famously said, "Speak softly, and carry a big stick". Well, it appears the FOMC has no time for Teddy. Their stick is surely big, but their talk has been loud and clear. On the other hand, the ECB has taken a decidedly more Rooseveltian...
Yesterday I mentioned that I would come back with some quick thoughts on likely Fed and ECB triggers for action in the wake of the elevated crisis situation in Europe. As always, it will be hard to pinpoint exact tipping points for a move - but I suspect that if we...
One of the many bright trade ideas to start the year was long spoos/short EURUSD. The idea was quite compelling in that the only thing that could truly derail a Bernanke-induced spoo rally would be big trouble across the pond - and hence big trouble for the EURO. And...
The Euro monetary system is flawed. It is a system that was cobbled together for political purposes; and sadly it was set up in such a way that each member state retained significant sovereign powers - most importantly the ability to exit the system and default on...
I have been in Asia since Monday morning. And I have had many individual meetings and a few group lunches/dinners across Hong Kong and Beijing. While this is at least my 15th trip to Beijing since my first in 1997, it only gets more amazing each time. There are a...
As a follow up to my short note on Friday - "The single most important decision in the history of EMU" - I want to look at the contagion, fallout and global central bank policy responses in the event that the Greeks are shut out of Target2 and thus forced to exit EMU....
As a follow up to my short note on Friday - "The single most important decision in the history of EMU" - I want to look at the contagion, fallout and global central bank policy responses in the event that the Greeks are shut out of Target2 and thus forced to exit EMU. But first, […]
