The Eurogroup communique was short and to the point- http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/131359.pdf And while some folks will focus on the irrelevant removal of subordination in the Spanish bank bailout terms - the big deal is in the...
Nearly all published research on the "fiscal cliff" looks at the static drag on the US economy from the projected tax rises and spending cuts. In economics we call this partial equilibrium analysis - and outside the ivory tower, this type of work translates into VERY...
The XLE closed yesterday at 63 - only a buck above the June 1 lows. For the year, XLE is now down a whopping 8 bucks. And of course oil, which started the year at 103 and peaked at 110, has dropped to 78. It has been an energy sector bloodbath in the last few...
Greece has a government, Italian 2yr yields have a 3 handle, spoos are back to +8 percent for the year and all seems a little more reasonable in this crazy, mixed-up market. As for our beloved policy makers, the EU leaders appear to FINALLY have something up their...
As the market breathes a collective sigh of relief tonight post the Greek election results, no one should get too carried away with euphoric feelings. Greece is a highly divided, highly volatile and deeply troubled country. A coalition government is by no means a done...
I had hundreds of client responses to my last two commentaries on the Spanish bank bailout. Clearly I struck a nerve. It is safe to surmise from everything I received that it is not very popular to make claims about how Europe might actually be onto something...
All I have read in the last 24 hours is how Spanish government bond holders have been subordinated to the ESM. And this in turn is being touted as the cause for the souring sentiment yesterday, after some short lived euphoria. I must confess, the relevance of this...
The details are not fully transparent, but the Spanish bank bailout - which was requested and granted in the same minute over the weekend - appears to have three VERY important components. First and foremost it is a BANK bailout, not a state bailout. It is early days...
It was Teddy Roosevelt that famously said, "Speak softly, and carry a big stick". Well, it appears the FOMC has no time for Teddy. Their stick is surely big, but their talk has been loud and clear. On the other hand, the ECB has taken a decidedly more Rooseveltian...
Yesterday I mentioned that I would come back with some quick thoughts on likely Fed and ECB triggers for action in the wake of the elevated crisis situation in Europe. As always, it will be hard to pinpoint exact tipping points for a move - but I suspect that if we...
Yesterday I mentioned that I would come back with some quick thoughts on likely Fed and ECB triggers for action in the wake of the elevated crisis situation in Europe. As always, it will be hard to pinpoint exact tipping points for a move - but I suspect that if we see a combination of […]
