In yesterday's commentary entitled "If I can flip it, then I'll buy it" I made some veiled metaphorical comparison between the US Treasury market of today and the Miami condo market of 2003/07. I want to expand on that metaphor today. In the 2003/07 time period there...
A senior Fed official asked me in a meeting not too long ago - "Are you surprised at how effective we have been at lowering long term rates?" My answer was - "Absolutely". We went on to discuss the breakdown of long term nominal rates into a real component, an...
Maybe it’s because I have taken a few days off to recharge the batteries and tackle some fresh springtime powder in the Alps; but it seems like many folks have failed to notice a seismic shift in markets. Only a handful of days ago, spoos finally pushed through 1400...
Last Thursday, as part of our Global Macro Speaker Series, I hosted a discussion in NYC with Ken Rogoff and Alan Meltzer. As many readers know, Ken has been an outspoken advocate of QE policies. He has also been in favor of temporarily pursuing higher inflation levels...
Employment highlights – * The participation rate went back up 0.2 and the unemployment rate still held steady at 8.3%. * There were some decent revisions to January payrolls (+28k) and December payrolls (+14k) * The broader U6 rate fell from 15.1% to 14.9% * The last...
(BN) *ISDA SAYS CREDIT EVENT HAS OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO GREECE (BN) *GREECE CREDIT SWAPS AUCTION TO BE `EXPEDITED,' ISDA SAYS "I've always said publicly that default is out of the question," – Trichet "There will be no default." – Rehn “People fail to see the costs...
Since the beginning of the crisis, the Fed has wanted to issue its own brand of bills. Rather than generating huge quantities of excess reserves, and be accused of reckless “printing”, the Fed would have preferred to drain the cash from long end QE purchases through...
Those who come to the party late, and buy the local highs in risky assets, will have an expensive admission ticket! But those who diligently follow the orders of the global central banks, keep their party hats securely fastened and stay at the party even when it is...
Since the LTRO announcement EURUSD is down almost 3 figures. The markets are correctly adjusting to a fundamental change in European monetary policy. Whether the hardliners want to admit it or not, the balance sheet expanders have finally taken control of the EUR...
The big events for the week are done. Bernanke spoke and Draghi opened the spigot. The LTRO was by far the more important event of the week, and the naysayers on its effectiveness were quietly taken out back to the woodshed for one final and gruesome pummeling. Open...
The big events for the week are done. Bernanke spoke and Draghi opened the spigot. The LTRO was by far the more important event of the week, and the naysayers on its effectiveness were quietly taken out back to the woodshed for one final and gruesome pummeling. Open the attachment or take a look at […]
