It’s been quite a trip through Europe this past week. Our central bank and SWF conference in Rome provided some very lively debate, as did the many client meetings in Geneva and London. I have a lot more to write about regarding Europe, but I will save that for Monday...
So here we sit with the DJIA and Nasdaq unchanged on the year, while the spoo is spitting distance from the green zone. At the same time core European bond markets are finding very little support, with some fairly aggressive moves in France and Belgium most recently....
"I know what you're thinking, 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'. Well to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, that would blow your head clean off, you've...
I spent all of last week on the west coast of the US crossing paths with about 300 clients from nearly 30 institutions. As to be expected, all discussions centered on Europe. While our highly pessimistic view on Europe met with only minor resistance, our idea that a...
After a disappointing week - like the one we just went through - I always do two things. First I reread Ben's classic "helicopter" deflation speech from 2002 - http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm And second, I reread Herbert...
Today should have been some sort of momentous occasion. The Germans have backed an expanded EFSF - but the markets are about as excited as Red Sox fans. The new chatter is that this expanded power is not enough - which is of course correct - the EFSF would need...
Here is an excerpt from Fed Governor Raskin's speech yesterday: "Indeed, some commentators assign a label of “hawk” or “dove” to the various FOMC participants in an attempt to characterize how we prioritize the goals of maximum employment and price stability. In my...
Remember the August 10, 2010 FOMC meeting? After the statement was released we wrote a commentary entitled the "The Top 10 FOMC mistake list – a new addition” (see the link “NSN L7TH583PWT1D” on your BB). It was the meeting where Ben thought he was setting the stage...
So, the colonel wimped out. He didn’t listen to his academic consigliore – Rogoff, Woodford and Geanakoplos. And he left the most courageous Fed President – Charlie Evans – out in the cold. Instead he went for a compromise after feeling the heat from both a highly...
At the FOMC meeting which begins today, there will likely be 3 alternatives presented in the Bluebook - A, B and C. Below we present what the statement might look like under each alternative. The more dovish Alternative A would likely call for 600b of longer dated...
At the FOMC meeting which begins today, there will likely be 3 alternatives presented in the Bluebook - A, B and C. Below we present what the statement might look like under each alternative. The more dovish Alternative A would likely call for 600b of longer dated securities to be added to portfolio and 300b […]
