Our scorching summer has official ended but fear levels remain red hot. One only needs to look at a chart of the German Bund, the US 10yr, the Greek 2yr, Gold or any money center bank stock price to see that markets are anticipating some catastrophic events this...
A baseball score - probably about right if we played ball, but no. A hockey score - very unlikely. A soccer score - no chance. It is something far more important - it is the number of Nobel prizes in economics that have been awarded to residents of each country. When...
Jackson Hole has come and gone taking spoos up over 4% and 10s up 15bps from their Friday lows. We are clawing back some of the August misery, but there is a lot of pain still out there. The Colonel has work to do, but the good news is he knows it - and that...
So the idea of a calm 2 weeks in Greece in order to recharge the batteries was shattered by the events of the last few weeks. I have tried to stay off the blackberry and get a little R and R, but each day I get drawn back in by the horror movie on the […] You...
A few weeks back I wrote a commentary entitled "Today's exercise - If spoo < X, then QE3. Solve for X". Yesterday's commitment by the Fed to keep the funds rate at an "extraordinarily low level" for 2 years is an ease. Is it a quantitative ease? Not in the sense that...
The CHF rallied over 2 percent before everything else opened which seemed an ominous sign. But now it is up only 0.5 percent. Tyu is DOWN on the session after starting up 9 tics. Spoos are up over 1 percent from the lows at 1262, but are still down just about 1.5...
There are a lot of questions to try to answer this weekend. The first set pertains to the US debt downgrade by S&P and the second set relates to the Italian debt crisis. Both are very serious matters. Let's start with the US debt downgrade - which many thought was...
The price action over the last 10 trading days has been nothing short of astonishing. From 22-Jul up until the 30 point cathartic clean out on Tuesday, we had 8 consecutive down days for spoos. Wednesday would have been the 9th, something not seen since 1978. We...
The basics of the BROMP (Boehner - Reid - Obama - McConnell - Pelosi) plan are out and spoos seem pretty happy!! Last week the market fell for this foolish idea that a debt default could actually be engineered in DC. Of course it was a scare tactic with no teeth....
Bob Barro, a highly distinguished Harvard economist, and more importantly one of my graduate macro professors at the University of Rochester back in the 80s, has always been one of the great skeptics of Keynesian economics - specifically Keynesian counter cyclical...
Bob Barro, a highly distinguished Harvard economist, and more importantly one of my graduate macro professors at the University of Rochester back in the 80s, has always been one of the great skeptics of Keynesian economics - specifically Keynesian counter cyclical fiscal policy prescriptions. As an original architect of modern neo-classical macro-economic theory, he would […]
