I have been away from the screens since Tuesday last week. It was quite nice to get a little R and R time on the powdery slopes before my marketing trip through Paris, London, Stockholm and Madrid commences this week. It was also nice to step away from the hysterical...
If the US Treasury issued overnight T-bills and bought 30 year MBS it would be no different than the Fed buying 30 year MBS for cash and paying interest on excess reserves. When it comes to balance sheet expansion (or contraction) at the zero interest rate bound,...
I spoke with a number of economists whose opinion I value highly since the PPI and CPI releases last week. These are folks who were NOT looking for any material upside risks to inflation in the coming quarters (or years frankly). Their song seemed to be changing after...
Both Europe and the US had debt bubbles which popped. Banks on both sides of the Atlantic do not hold enough capital to cover the losses associated with the poor lending decisions from the previous decade. The folks with 200 LTVs in Las Vegas are no different than...
I have been fortunate enough to speak at a conference out in Las Vegas over St. Patrick's Day and the NCAA tipoff party this week. At the conference we have discussed and debated the global crisis environment for hours on end -but in the bubble that is the rest of Las...
Whether you trade US consumer abs, European bank credit, Aussie government debt or USDMEX there is almost certainly one chart featured prominently on your screen(s) - the S&P 500. In times of unprecedented uncertainty and crisis, correlations always move sharply...
While I am not a huge fan of either survey or TIPS based measures of inflation expectations, today's UMich inflation expectations release is going to raise some eyebrows at 20th and C Street in DC!!! The following statement from the Jan 26th FOMC meeting may need a...
There are many messages in my inbox this morning on the Japanese quake. While I don’t think anyone has successfully been able to grasp the extent of the damage, the size of 8.9 is truly shocking. Such a quake is capable of horrific destruction. We can all only hope...
There is plenty to discuss this morning in light of the US data, the Fed testimony and the ECB red alert. First, the US data were strong – claims, the U rate and the employment components of the PMIs all point to a MUCH stronger employment picture for Q1 2011 than...
The greatest macroeconomic debate of all time is that between the classics and Keynesians. It was best represented in the 70s, 80s and 90s when one looked at the research from the fresh water schools - Chicago/Rochester/Carnegie-Mellon versus that from the salt water...
The greatest macroeconomic debate of all time is that between the classics and Keynesians. It was best represented in the 70s, 80s and 90s when one looked at the research from the fresh water schools - Chicago/Rochester/Carnegie-Mellon versus that from the salt water schools - Harvard/MIT/Princeton. If we could put figure heads on each side […]
