Today's HH testimony (or whatever it’s called these days) contains some real gems on the Fed's view of how monetary policy really works. First, let’s reread the view of why lowering short term rates is the same as buying long term government bonds- "Large-scale...
As one reads through the Administration white paper on GSE reform a couple of key themes jump out. First and foremost the government's role in housing finance is going to diminish markedly. However, the white paper is somewhat tortured on complete removal of...
We all own one. It has been comfortably tucked away in our back pockets since late 2008. Occasionally we forget it’s there. And back in the fall of 2008, when it was taken away for a brief period of time, global capital markets self-destructed. Of course I’m referring...
For global capital markets, the events in the Middle East (ME) are exciting, transforming and of course worrying. Undemocratic, strong arm leadership is being toppled, which of course should be something the West welcomes and encourages. But with the orderly...
Kyle’s investor letters are always a joy to read. It is global macro investing at its finest. His latest missive is worth 15 of your valuable minutes this morning - http://www.scribd.com/doc/48881153/Kyle-Bass-Hayman-Investor-Letter-February-2011 He also has a nice...
- The piece reads more like an op-ed than a government document. This is surprising and refreshing. - The proposals all seek to reduce the government’s involvement in housing finance market significantly. - The price of a government wrap for MBS will be heading much...
So Axel Weber, the uber-hawk of the ECB, has thrown in the towel and is headed to the dark side. No doubt the conclave of EU finmins leaked that Axel was not going to get the top job and he promptly stormed off in protest. I always thought that his open criticism of...
In early November, a mere 3 months ago, 5 year UST yields were right around 1 percent. There were forecasts of 1.75 percent 10 year USTs in Q1 2011 from some major commercial banks, and others were forecasting 2.5 to 3 trillion in addition Fed LSAPs. In addition, the...
The market has had its feathers ruffled in recent weeks on some seemingly hawkish ECB statements combined with stronger Euro PMI and inflation data. The 2yr German yield rose from 85bps a few weeks ago to 1.50% just before today’s ECB meeting. Over the same time...
It was only 3 months ago that the unwind of bond market lunacy began. Back in early November 2010 most pundits were still discussing the US lost decade and many were forecasting 1 handles on 10 year yields in 2011. There was a relentless flow of negative discourse...
It was only 3 months ago that the unwind of bond market lunacy began. Back in early November 2010 most pundits were still discussing the US lost decade and many were forecasting 1 handles on 10 year yields in 2011. There was a relentless flow of negative discourse from both the usual suspects as we […]
