It has been back to back meetings in London this week so apologies for the radio silence during these tumultuous times. There are so many things to discuss I'm not sure where to begin: US growth upgrades from the econ mob, huge positive US fiscal stimulus surprises,...
The tangled web of geopolitics in markets gets more complex by the day. Yesterday, unnamed US officials piped up about adding additional funding to the EFSF. Why in the world would the US want to bail out peripheral Europe? Aren't the Americans supposed to be done...
Europe is going through an exercise in self-destruction. The Fed is buying 600b in Treasuries. And North Korea is vowing a “physical response” to US-South Korean military drills off its coast. If these events could not get the Treasury market to rally then what...
In the last 24 hours I have had conversations with a wide array of non-English European folks. Many I have known in the markets for 15 to 20 years. The common theme in all of the conversations, even the senior policy makers, was the acquiescent nature of the...
Let’s start with a few fun quotes from the weekend: Wolfganf Munchau – “The eurozone is maneuvering itself into a position where it confronts the choice between two alternatives considered “unimaginable”: fiscal union or break-up” Wolfgang Schaeuble - “We are not just...
Spreads in the Euro-area “quasi-core” are cracking - 5yr French CDS has popped 25bps in the last 6 weeks taking it to a level higher than the Czech Republic and Qatar! And Italy is now funding at its highest spread levels since early 1997 (3 years before EMU kicked...
Nope. I see no reason to get nervous about global systemic contagion risks from an EMU sovereign debt run. The markets are prepared for, and in many cases welcoming of, the news of EMU's demise. A run will very quickly bring relief that Europe has finally come to its...
There has never been good reason to believe the biggest debt violators of the Lisbon treaty would make good on their long term commitments. These countries do not have an inflation mechanism to rid themselves of their real debt burdens and the masses will throw out...
Wow. Ben steps up and delivers! There is no subtle innuendo in his Frankfurt speech, just brazen and downright aggressive warnings to major emerging market trading partners of the US. We wrote that something like this was behind the LSAP/QE2 policy in a commentary...
One of the nice things about being on the buy side for many years slinging bonds and currencies around is that your ex-salespeople always think you are coming back. As such, they keep you on all those distribution loops in hopes of some future sales credits. As I...
One of the nice things about being on the buy side for many years slinging bonds and currencies around is that your ex-salespeople always think you are coming back. As such, they keep you on all those distribution loops in hopes of some future sales credits. As I sifted through the comments from so many […]
