The critical message from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was not a hawkish one. Yes, the committee changed their year end-2024 rate cut projection from 75bps to 25bps. And as a consequence, the knee-jerk pundit reaction was to deem the postponement in cuts as hawkish. But...
As promised, I will always start out the new month with a blast from the past. This piece below from 2019 might be my favorite on the relative importance of monetary vs fiscal policy. Enjoy!!! $1.9 trillion of crowding out, pork, and redistribution - January 20, 2019...
Earlier this week, I attended the annual Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference, something I have been doing regularly for over a decade. This year, there were four reserve bank presidents and two board members in attendance, along with plenty of current and past...
A version of this commentary will appear on the CNBC Pro website today: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/david-zervos-blame-traders-living-in-rate-cut-la-la-land-not-the-fed-for-recent-market-turbulence.html In the last 2 months of 2023, the market added an additional...
Before providing a few comments on the results of today's FOMC meeting, I wanted to take care of two unrelated issues. First up, a quick logistical update. Below is list of my upcoming speaking events in May and June. If you would like to participate in, or check...
Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to...
The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year, is worth revisiting today. I particularly like the title CNBC chose to go with for the clip: "We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies' David Zervos"...
Before tackling today's topic, I want to respond to the many readers who reached out after a technical glitch in our new publishing system accidently sent two old notes from 2020 to my entire distribution list last Friday. I was worried that this would annoy folks who...
I do not usually comment on market reactions to a single piece of data, but the ripfest in spoos after yesterday’s higher than expected 0.4% print in core CPI is worth a shout out. Prior to the release of market moving economic data, such as NFP or CPI, the dealer...
For over a year I have tried to convince clients, colleagues, and competitors that the colossal size of global central bank balance sheets has been deeply underappreciated by the macroeconomic forecasting community. The long-term stimulative effects from these balance...
For over a year I have tried to convince clients, colleagues, and competitors that the colossal size of global central bank balance sheets has been deeply underappreciated by the macroeconomic forecasting community. The long-term stimulative effects from these balance sheets caused many folks to consistently overestimate the true level of restrictiveness for monetary policy. In […]
