After spending the bulk of last week in Boston, I'm off to the great state of Texas this morning for more client debate and discussion on the Jefferies global macro outlook. There was no shortage of controversy in virtually every meeting last week as our JEF rose...
The FED will be successful at reflating the US economy. However, the buying of Treasuries, to push long term government bond yields lower, will not directly transmit lower funding rates to any important parts of the economy (such as the household sector). In fact it...
It amuses me to this day to see respectable institutions suing mortgage originators for violations of reps and warranties associated with the creation of non-agency residential mortgage backed securities. The whole creation of alt-a and subprime securities came about...
We have sent the October Global Fixed Income Monthly to printer and it should available in a couple hours. We will forward the pdf once it comes back. In the mean time I have attached the forecast summary for everyone to chew on…enjoy! Forecast Summary Since the...
Yesterday was the "coming out" party for the FOMC minutes. It was formally announced that the minutes are now a policy tool - they can be used to ease or tighten policy. Oh boy!! Given the recent FOMC record on delivering a clear and transparent message, this is gonna...
The part I found most interesting is where the FOMC thought it was important for us have the Fisher equation spelled out in detail - "With short-term nominal interest rates constrained by the zero bound, a decline in short-term inflation expectations increases short...
For the bulk of the FOMC voting members, the act of easing monetary policy from current levels involves outright buying of longer dated Treasury securities with the explicit intent to lower longer term bond yields. As Vice Chairman Dudley stated in his seminal October...
Welcome to the world of the Bernanke put. In the end the data ex government/census noise looks decent with private payrolls on the same trend at 80k/mth or so. But headline seems to be the focus for govvies which now have to anticipate the Fed buying 6 yards a day...
There are many news stories floating around on the Fed's near certain restart of a Treasury LSAP program in November. You have some commentators suggesting that tea party candidates want to reign in Fed intervention in the Treasury market. The idea is that the Fed is...
Private payrolls miss by almost 50k and the spoo is flat on the day at 5 month highs!!! Anyone that does not believe in the Bernanke Put needs to rethink the situation. The only issue that confounds the full throttle reflation trade is implementation. At present, the...
Private payrolls miss by almost 50k and the spoo is flat on the day at 5 month highs!!! Anyone that does not believe in the Bernanke Put needs to rethink the situation. The only issue that confounds the full throttle reflation trade is implementation. At present, the current FOMC believes that buying long dated Treasuries […]
