A catchy headline huh? Sorry to all the doomsayers, it’s not the crash you were hoping for! This crash will be in implied vols! Attached are 3 charts - 5y5y USD implied swaption vol, 1 mth EURUSD FX implied vol and the VIX. Two things are apparent from these charts –...
While the initial reaction to Ben’s testimony generated a few hick-ups, we are following a standard, albeit somewhat delayed, market response – stronger risk assets and lower expected short rates. Spoos are up about a percent and FFM1 are up 3bps since the testimony...
I remember when we all used to brace ourselves for HH testimony (aka the semiannual monetary policy report to congress). The wording was always cryptic and confusing – and everyone sat on the edge of their seat trying to figure out what the maestro was really saying....
Before discussing today’s HH testimony, I wanted to follow up on yesterday's commentary attacking the deflationista camp. I received mucho feedback on that piece – some agreed, but many didn’t like what they read and wanted more detail. Specifically, people asked for...
I thought I would look back over the last 60 years and attempt to measure how significant these hyped up deflation risks in the US economy really are. Deflation angst has surely been increasing recently – and it was also quite a prevalent worry back in the last...
There have been two important developments at the two most powerful central banks in the past two months. First, noises from the Fed officials on QE2 – aka round two of credit/quantitative easing – have caused renewed concern about balance sheet expansion and debt...
Implied US swaption vols are being CRUSHED. I have attached 2 charts – one for 5y5y and another for 6m10y implied normalized US swaption volatility. Vega, the 5y5y implied, is at its lowest level in over a year. Gamma, the 6m10y implied, is close to the March 2010...
Seven trading sessions ago 10yr yields were below 2.90% and the spoo was looking set to break 1000. I was stomping floor last week trying to convince people that “the economic reality of a 2.50% 10 year note” was a fantasy world! That said, I have been negative on...
And had basically been delisted This headline just came across: (BN) *GERMANY'S HYPO REAL ESTATE SAID TO FAIL EU BANKING STRESS TEST It’s kinda like saying FNM, FRE, AIG, LEH or BSC failed the US stress test. Kinda seems obvious! If HRX had passed, now that would be...
I thought that sticking with a South Park theme for commentary titles seemed appropriate given yesterday’s title – “And…its gone”. The chance to sell 2 handles in 10s is still gone and we are pushing up towards some key technical levels around 3.06. The rocking...
I thought that sticking with a South Park theme for commentary titles seemed appropriate given yesterday’s title – “And…its gone”. The chance to sell 2 handles in 10s is still gone and we are pushing up towards some key technical levels around 3.06. The rocking employment data from Canada today gave us a nice push […]
