The chance to sell 3 handles in 10s has just disappeared. I remain steadfast in my pessimistic view of the long end of the US bond market! In any case I was once again shocked by the ECB today (this is getting old). So I was imagining that the fed funds rate had shot...
A few focus points this morning. First, the ECB continues to be a thorn in the side of global markets by failing to realize it is feeding a debt/deflation spiral in southern Europe. The latest weekly liquidity drain to sterilize purchases came at a whopping 56bps....
Global fiscal austerity fears and disappointment on the US data front have us flirting with some steamy levels in US Treasuries. Those portfolio managers buying long end Treasuries at these levels in hopes of a rally should seriously consider the economic outlook they...
With 10s at 2.95% we are a mere 90bps from the "end of the world" lows in 2008/09. At that time the entire financial system was broken, global trade had halted, the payment system was on the brink of collapse, growth in emerging Asia was falling at 20%+ rates, the ISM...
In the last 9 days, 10 year UST yields have fallen 40bps and spoos are down nearly 10%. Both are now at lows for the year. Certainly that was not how I saw Q2 ending, and frankly I remain stumped by the magnitude of the moves. Have the facts in the last 2 weeks...
I’m finally back in the office after a week on the West Coast and a week in Europe. That follows 2 weeks in Asia so I am basically exhausted! For the most part, clients I saw on these trips had a more bearish take on global economic prospects than the one I presented...
In the last couple months risk asset markets have struggled, Bund and Treasury rates across the curve have moved towards their 2010 lows, and the dollar has broadly rallied against most other currencies. Up until the May rout, the recovery looked to be well on its way...
When there are significant stresses in world markets, I look to Europe for the causes. It used to be Japan in 1990s, and then the US in the 2000s, but for the 2010s it’s the EU area that owns the honor. In looking at the sources and origins of the May breakdown in...
First order of business, apologies for being a little light on the commentary late last week – I ended up with very little time between meetings in LA, San Fran and Seattle. This week I’m in Old Blighty, but I should have more time behind the screens. I can’t say I...
This seemed like an appropriate title today for two reasons. First, I’m holed up in LA. Second, EMU countries are starting to feel what it’s like to enter the big bad market jungle on their own for the first time in a decade. The warm and fuzzy blanket that protected...
This seemed like an appropriate title today for two reasons. First, I’m holed up in LA. Second, EMU countries are starting to feel what it’s like to enter the big bad market jungle on their own for the first time in a decade. The warm and fuzzy blanket that protected all of Europe from many […]
