And had basically been delisted This headline just came across: (BN) *GERMANY'S HYPO REAL ESTATE SAID TO FAIL EU BANKING STRESS TEST It’s kinda like saying FNM, FRE, AIG, LEH or BSC failed the US stress test. Kinda seems obvious! If HRX had passed, now that would be...
I thought that sticking with a South Park theme for commentary titles seemed appropriate given yesterday’s title – “And…its gone”. The chance to sell 2 handles in 10s is still gone and we are pushing up towards some key technical levels around 3.06. The rocking...
The chance to sell 3 handles in 10s has just disappeared. I remain steadfast in my pessimistic view of the long end of the US bond market! In any case I was once again shocked by the ECB today (this is getting old). So I was imagining that the fed funds rate had shot...
A few focus points this morning. First, the ECB continues to be a thorn in the side of global markets by failing to realize it is feeding a debt/deflation spiral in southern Europe. The latest weekly liquidity drain to sterilize purchases came at a whopping 56bps....
Global fiscal austerity fears and disappointment on the US data front have us flirting with some steamy levels in US Treasuries. Those portfolio managers buying long end Treasuries at these levels in hopes of a rally should seriously consider the economic outlook they...
With 10s at 2.95% we are a mere 90bps from the "end of the world" lows in 2008/09. At that time the entire financial system was broken, global trade had halted, the payment system was on the brink of collapse, growth in emerging Asia was falling at 20%+ rates, the ISM...
In the last 9 days, 10 year UST yields have fallen 40bps and spoos are down nearly 10%. Both are now at lows for the year. Certainly that was not how I saw Q2 ending, and frankly I remain stumped by the magnitude of the moves. Have the facts in the last 2 weeks...
I’m finally back in the office after a week on the West Coast and a week in Europe. That follows 2 weeks in Asia so I am basically exhausted! For the most part, clients I saw on these trips had a more bearish take on global economic prospects than the one I presented...
In the last couple months risk asset markets have struggled, Bund and Treasury rates across the curve have moved towards their 2010 lows, and the dollar has broadly rallied against most other currencies. Up until the May rout, the recovery looked to be well on its way...
When there are significant stresses in world markets, I look to Europe for the causes. It used to be Japan in 1990s, and then the US in the 2000s, but for the 2010s it’s the EU area that owns the honor. In looking at the sources and origins of the May breakdown in...
When there are significant stresses in world markets, I look to Europe for the causes. It used to be Japan in 1990s, and then the US in the 2000s, but for the 2010s it’s the EU area that owns the honor. In looking at the sources and origins of the May breakdown in risk assets, […]
