Every August I try to check out from both client activity and market commentary. Of course, if trading conditions warrant (as they did in 2011 and 2015), then I write. But if nothing of substance occurs, I prefer to use this time to rest up for what is always a very...
The US CPI has missed market expectations on the downside for the last four months, crashing to a growth rate of 1.6% YoY most recently, from 2.7% YoY back in February. At the same time, core CPI growth has dropped back to 1.7% YoY, and core PCE price index growth has...
A few weeks ago, in a commentary entitled “The terminal funds rate,” I began to flirt with returning towards a positive view on risk parity trades. Looking back, it has been about a year since I recommended the spoo side of that trade – and about 18 months since I had...
On Wednesday we will almost surely get the fourth rate hike of this cycle. And just as a reminder to all the folks who used to think the Fed could never raise rates again without sending us into a 1937-style second Great Depression – uh... that was a really dumb...
I am going to make a bold claim today: US inflation is shockingly high. Now of course, with core PCE at 1.5% and core CPI at 1.9%, your first reaction might be "That Zervos dude is out of his mind – again!" But bear with me; I think I can convince you that this claim...
Expectations for fiscal and regulatory easing, along with a modest withdrawal of monetary accommodation, created a post-election tailwind for spoos, the USD, and Treasury yields. And to be sure, this tailwind occasionally blew with gale force (particularly in the...
Expectations for fiscal and regulatory easing, along with a modest withdrawal of monetary accommodation, created a post-election tailwind for spoos, the USD, and Treasury yields. And to be sure, this tailwind occasionally blew with gale force (particularly in the early days), while at other times clock calm left these market trends rocking aimlessly. This past […]
