"The economy cannot on its own generate enough steam to provide our full potential of growth" - Alvin Hansen, "The Stagnation Thesis" (1954) The first economist to use the term "secular stagnation" was Harvard Professor Alvin Hansen in his 1938 work entitled "Full...
With Janet's hearings out of the way, there is little to focus on with regards to Fed policy into year-end. The next major event will be November payrolls, but even a big print will not likely catalyze a taper. With all the talk of lower unemployment thresholds,...
Days like yesterday are simply magical – spoos +14 and EDZ6 +16; it just doesn’t get any better. The risk market and the risk-free markets were both strong to start the day, on rumors that the Fed might lower the IOER in conjunction with an initial taper. What a...
A 2.8% GDP print and 200k+ on payrolls are poison for the hater community. For those who thought QE is just pushing on a string, or the government shutdown would destroy growth, or the business cycle is dead, or Rob Ford did not have a substance abuse problem.....I'm...
"The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." – John Kenneth Galbraith Just about 23 years ago I entered the Marriner S. Eccles building for the first time, walking through the doors on C Street between 20th and 21st. As I passed...
All that can be gleaned from yesterday's FOMC statement is that the Committee seems a bit more comfortable with 10s at 2.50% than at 3.00%. The October missive was essentially a repeat of September with one exception - the removal of the reference to tighter financial...
All that can be gleaned from yesterday's FOMC statement is that the Committee seems a bit more comfortable with 10s at 2.50% than at 3.00%. The October missive was essentially a repeat of September with one exception - the removal of the reference to tighter financial conditions. And while some folks were preparing for softer […]
