Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951 commodity price crash experience of higher yields […]

Last week's note entitled "European bailouts, gold crashes, rate tantrums" generated a fair amount of controversy. Many folks pointed out that the recent abrupt drop in neary all major commodity prices meant that the current situation was not, as I suggested, readily comparable to the Spring of 2013. These folks went on to suggest that […]

While this may sound strange, I believe European risk assets would have ended at higher levels last week had Greece left the Eurozone. Of course there would have been an ugly initial dip, but the market would have quickly realized that an exit (or timeout) was NOT another Lehman event. And the ECB would have […]

When I send out a commentary I generally receive quite a lot of “feedback”. Often I get hundreds of responses, and I wish I could say I read everything - but that would be disingenuous. I do however try to open most of the emails and have at least a quick glance. And like most […]

If we step back for a moment and take stock of the entire Greek situation it is pretty amazing. The Greek parliament is actually about to agree to sweeping tax reforms, pension reforms, labor market reforms and privatizations. And the leader of this great charge for structural reform – the man who is breaking the […]

Imagine a world where the strongest country in Europe sets out plan to destroy the weakest. And while the powerless nation fights valiantly, it eventually falls prey to its dominant invaders. As these events unfold, most of the other countries of Europe publically accept (and even endorse) the aggression. These countries watch from the sidelines […]

With a NO vote firmly in place, there are many more questions than answers. Will there be a forced restructuring of Greek banks? Will Greek depositors be bailed in as was suggested in the weekend press? Will the IMF recommendation of 50b in debt restructuring force German hands in a deal? Can any form of […]

When writing commentaries for our clients I have one driving principle - never waste anyone's time. We are all inundated with too much information, and time is our most precious asset. As such, I will sometimes write two or three notes in a week, and other times I will skip a week entirely. I do […]

The bell is tolling for Alexis. European leaders from all sides have abandoned him as he burns through every last bridge that was once in place. His only meeting of importance during this crucial week of negotiation is with Putin - which clearly does not inspire any confidence for a near term resolution. It is […]

I have never been one to embrace value in risk free assets during QE periods. For well over 5 years I have written countless commentaries trying to steer people towards risk assets and away from the Icarian allure of front running central bank bond buying programs. The only way I would ever recommend a long […]