At the beginning of this year I wrote a piece entitled "Are you ready for the big crash?" I'm sure as that subject line hit the inboxes of the hater community there was immediate rejoicing. Those folks initially thought - "Zervos has finally seen the bearish light and...
Last Thursday we witnessed another baby step in the right direction for ECB policy. Of course it was only back in June when we had our last baby step - the announcement of the TLTRO - but that, like so many other ECB moves during the post crisis period, proved too...
A perfect number for risk assets: • A well over 100k miss on payrolls when you factor in revisions • Durable goods and retail trade were each 30k lower for August vs July • No sign of meaningful wage growth • The U6 rate fell 0.2%, but U3 was unchanged • The lower U6...
On October 14th 2014 in New York City we will be hosting our 6th Global Macro Speaker Series event. Our featured speaker this time will be Dr Ben S Bernanke. Previous event speakers included Marty Feldstein, Ken Rogoff, Alan Meltzer, John Taylor, Tim Geithner and...
This will be the first ever commentary I have written solely with my left hand, and for that reason it will be short. For those who do not know, I had surgery earlier this week to repair 2 ruptured tendons - one in my thumb and one in my pointer finger. During the...
As we take a second shot at the "spoo2k" level, its worth highlighting a chart which has probably received more airtime than any other on wall street. This chart has been used to suggest equity price moves are basically being driven tick for tick by the expansion of...
On the surface, Stan Fischer's first speech as the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board this past Monday might seem a bit depressing. The word "disappoint" (as in disappointing and disappointment) shows up 5 times. The word "slowdown" shows up 8 times, and the...
Maybe I have been looking at different data releases than the rest of the market, but I don't see what all the fuss is about. I understand payrolls were a few thousand short of expectations - but +209k is highly respectable. And the 3mth, 6th and 12mth moving averages...
Just a quick note post GDP and pre FOMC. Today's GDP report resolved the much discussed discrepancy between the IP/employment data and the output data. Of course the strong data won the battle and that is worth celebrating. The hater community will now need to do some...
Last week the S&P500 touched a new record high of 1991.39. Within the coming weeks it is highly likely we will surpass the psychologically important level of 2000. So this got me thinking - how much time will it take before we see a doubling of the S&P to its next...
Last week the S&P500 touched a new record high of 1991.39. Within the coming weeks it is highly likely we will surpass the psychologically important level of 2000. So this got me thinking - how much time will it take before we see a doubling of the S&P to its next major "record" milestone of […]
