Back on September 15th I put out a commentary entitled "Are you ready for the big rally?". In that piece I tried to describe how Fed miscommunication, and market volatility, were likely to "rally" markedly as the taper process ended. This was of course was a significant departure in tone from my previous 2014 commentaries. […]

During this past year I have put forward a couple of love songs for Janet. The first was that Rocky Horror Picture Show classic - "Dammit Janet". And the second was from Guns and Roses - "Patience". Both seemed very appropriate during the time of a slow, steady and well-defined taper. But given the events […]

The one thing I love about currency markets is their inability to be harnessed by policy makers. Decades (even centuries) have been spent designing exchange rate mechanisms, currency unions, accords, agreements and pegs. And of course even more time has been spent conducting generally fruitless FX interventions. But when it comes to the market clearing […]

It was meant to be a time for celebration - a time for high fives and smug smiles. QE is ending. And QE worked. Those around the FOMC table, the ones who fought the good fight, should be out there taking a victory lap. But these victory laps for the good guys - Yellen, Evans, […]

While the words "considerable time" were kept in the statement, their relevance was destroyed in the press conference. Here are two key excerpts from Janet's post meeting discussion: "I want to emphasize that there is no  mechanical interpretation of what the term considerable time means. And as I have said  repeatedly the decisions that the […]

At the beginning of this year I wrote a piece entitled "Are you ready for the big crash?" I'm sure as that subject line hit the inboxes of the hater community there was immediate rejoicing. Those folks initially thought - "Zervos has finally seen the bearish light and he is now ready to come to […]

Last Thursday we witnessed another baby step in the right direction for ECB policy. Of course it was only back in June when we had our last baby step - the announcement of the TLTRO - but that, like so many other ECB moves during the post crisis period, proved too little too late. As […]

A perfect number for risk assets: • A well over 100k miss on payrolls when you factor in revisions • Durable goods and retail trade were each 30k lower for August vs July • No sign of meaningful wage growth • The U6 rate fell 0.2%, but U3 was unchanged • The lower U6 rate, […]

On October 14th 2014 in New York City we will be hosting our 6th Global Macro Speaker Series event. Our featured speaker this time will be Dr Ben S Bernanke. Previous event speakers included Marty Feldstein, Ken Rogoff, Alan Meltzer, John Taylor, Tim Geithner and Larry Summers. I cannot think of any person better suited […]

This will be the first ever commentary I have written solely with my left hand, and for that reason it will be short. For those who do not know, I had surgery earlier this week to repair 2 ruptured tendons - one in my thumb and one in my pointer finger. During the procedure they […]