There were no big surprises in the Fed statement or at Ben's press conference yesterday. The Committee tweaked the growth and inflation forecasts modestly weaker, gave a nod to fiscal policy risks and talked up some of the recent positives in the US data. The market...
What happened to Cyprus on Friday evening was one of the most significant developments in the Eurozone since the Greek election last summer. To tax the bank deposits of savers sends an ominous message to the entire global investment community. All of us should really...
One of the most common phrases I hear in the market is - "this is going to end badly". You hear it from Presidents of Federal Reserve Banks, Congressmen, gloom and doom market pundits, disgruntled fund managers who missed the risk rally and German politicians just to...
Ok, I am going to be a bit of a geek today. So no Breaking Bad, Colonel Jessup or Charlie Sheen references. Sorry to disappoint but there are some serious changes under way in market correlation patterns. And these need to be addressed. Specifically, the USD is...
In the last week, there was an unusually clear message from the core of the FOMC. Ben spent hours answering questions in front of Congress last Tuesday and Wednesday - and then gave a strongly worded speech on Friday in San Francisco. On Monday, his number one...
As our beloved colonel/chairman took the stand this week, nerves in the market were frayed. News of Italian election chaos and the sequester were splashed across the screens. Spoos had been pounded, the Yen was rallying and you could hear the screams of pain from...
The markets continue to be driven in the short term by a lot of noise. People are focusing on the UK downgrade, Italian elections, Cypriot bailouts, LTRO paydowns, the US sequester and Charlie Sheen's twitter pictures during the Oscars. All of these "focal points"...
In the December minutes, the following passage got everyone hot and bothered - “In considering the outlook for the labor market and the broader economy, a few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of...
This is NOT a currency war - it’s a growth war. And the rules of engagement were established this past week by the G20. We could think of the released statement as a sort of "Geneva Convention" for the upcoming fight. And let's make no mistake - this is setting up to...
Before discussing "Bubble Busters" - which should hopefully generate a few morning laughs - I want to address two very important points from last week. First, I wrote a quick comment last Wednesday entitled "Why would Mario be hawkish?". The premise was that at last...
Before discussing "Bubble Busters" - which should hopefully generate a few morning laughs - I want to address two very important points from last week. First, I wrote a quick comment last Wednesday entitled "Why would Mario be hawkish?". The premise was that at last Thursday's ECB press conference he would spin a dovish tale […]
